howard sumner: Market update at glance January 2013 - 02/06/13 04:10 PM
Market update at glance
January 2013
As I sit and review the performance of the market for January and all of 2012, the increase in in unit sales is outstanding, the decrease in market time is phenomenal, the increase in pending sales is a positive trend, yet then I get to price movement and scratch my head. The normal expectation would be with the type of increase in demand indicated by unit sales, the market should experience pretty dynamitic pricing pressure, yet when you look at the pricing data, that does come through the market. So the question becomes, will the … (0 comments)

howard sumner: rental market year review video - 01/28/13 10:07 AM

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howard sumner: The King has no clothes - 01/28/13 05:40 AM
In the child’s fairy tale, in order to save  their lives the tailor’s convinced the King they were weaving his clothes from Gold, of course they could not do that, yet none of the Kings advisors dare mention he had no clothes. When the king went out through  the kingdom in his woven gold clothes that did not exist, it was a child that did have the blinded eyes of bending down to power, that he exclaimed “the king has no clothes”.  So it with housing, the peak was in 2005 we are now in the eight year from the peak. … (3 comments)

howard sumner: Power on interest rates on Purchasing - 01/27/13 11:14 AM
The power of interest rates on purchasing
When looking at today’s market concerning interest rates the best perspective is look at the economy in the recent past. Since the economic events of 2008 the Federal Reserve has committed to driving interest rates down to spur sales in the housing sector and the economy in general.
In 2007 the interest rate average for the year was 6.34% for a thirty year mortgage, fast forward to 2012 the average for the year was 3.66% or a drop of 42.27%. comparing the median sales over that same period of time the median sales price … (1 comments)

howard sumner: simpler home office deduction - 01/23/13 05:59 AM
The IRS today announced a simplified option that many owners of home-based businesses and some home-based workers may use to figure their deductions for the business use of their homes. In tax year 2010, the most recent year for which figures are available, nearly 3.4 million taxpayers claimed deductions for business use of a home (commonly referred to as the home office deduction).
The new optional deduction, capped at $1,500 per year based on $5 a square foot for up to 300 square feet, will reduce the paperwork and recordkeeping burden on small businesses by an estimated 1.6 million hours annually. … (0 comments)

howard sumner: year end rental market report - 01/20/13 03:10 PM
Year end rental market report
this INFORMATION is a composite of over 15,400 SEPARATE ads in 2012 and over 87,000 in the last five years.
#1 about 13% fewer units advertised for rent 2012 COMPARED to 2011
#2 about 5% increase in pricing in APARTMENTS for rent 2012 COMPARED to 2011
#3 about 3% increase in pricing in HOMES FOR rent 2012 COMPARED to 2011
#4 the home rental market FOR a three bedroom with GARAGE INDICATES it is cheaper to own than rent. THE AVERAGE RENTAL CHARGE is $1,257 for a three BEDROOM home with a garage.  the AVERAGE MONTHLY … (2 comments)

howard sumner: Yellowstone County looking 10 years back - 01/09/13 07:02 AM
Thought it might be fun to do the ten year comparison for Yellowstone county home sales
Soooooooo I thought let’s compare today to ten years ago to today and see what we shall see
#1 Population               2002        132,165         vs.     2012     51,814               an increase of  14.86%
#2 employment            2002        71,690           vs.     2012     78,672              An increase of  9.73%
#3 interest rates           2002       6.54%            vs.     2012      3.66%               a decrease of  44%
#4 Average Wage         2002       $28,535        vs.     2012       $41,532           an increase of  45.54%
#5 Consumer  CPI         2002       177.7             vs.     2012      231.325            an increase of  30%
#6 Sales Price … (0 comments)

howard sumner: BABY BOOMERS AND OTHER MYTHS - 01/08/13 10:37 AM
 
RECENTLY WAS READING AN ANALYSIS OF WHAT IS TRANSPIRING IN THE LABOR FORCE ON ONE OF THE GREAT TENANTS THE REASON THE NUMBER OF “NOT IN THE LABOR FORCE IS GROWING IS BABY BOOMERS ARE RETIRING AND LEAVING THE WORK FORCE NOT THAT PEOPLE ARE GIVING UP LOOKING FOR WORK. IF PEOPLE WERE GIVING UP LOOKING FOR WORK THAT WOULD MEAN THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS MUCH HIGHER . Not that I am doubting Thomas, yet I wanted to look the information up myself to make sure that i was not passing along :”bad “ information .
 
so lets look … (0 comments)

howard sumner: national new single family sales - 01/08/13 05:40 AM
I always marvel at the lack depth of the questions main stream media. For 2012 all the talk about the “recovery” of the new construction single family sales market.
Soooooooo I thought let’s compare today to ten years ago to today and see what we shall see
#1 employment   2002     130,341,000     vs.     2012           133,238,000        an increase of  2.29%
#2 interest rates  2002     6.54%                   vs.     2012           3.66%                   a decrease of  44%
#3 Average income    2002      $31,899      vs.     2012           $42,503            an increase of  13.62%
#4 Consumer  CPI       2002    177.7             vs.     … (1 comments)

howard sumner: Market update december 2012 end of the year - 01/06/13 10:49 AM
Market Update at a glance December 2012
We are now through the year and the good numbers continue to roll through the housing market here in Yellowstone Count, Inventory lower by 23%, pending sales up by 24%, closed sales up by 18%, new home permits up 80% all outstanding performance for the residential market. The driver for most of this outstanding performance comes from three things interest rate and jobs and population growth. First let's talk about interest rates, the Federal Reserve through buying mortgages, has managed to drive interest rates to historical lows, 15.4% below last December and 36.67% below … (2 comments)

howard sumner: November National new contruction Numbers - 01/06/13 06:26 AM
New home contuction continues to show improvement as the genral housing market does. the question is what happens whne the fedral reserve takes away the sugar high of low interst rates. whith rates where they are basically the federal resrve has lowered the interst cost by about 47% since 2007. With that type of boost sales are still 40% below the fity year average which indicates some underlying problems yet to solve .h
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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howard sumner: Market up date at Glance through November 2012 - 12/07/12 10:26 AM
Market up date at Glance through November 2012
Noise, Noise, Noise……. As I sat down to review this months & year to date information, the election ads got me to thinking about all the misleading information you need to sort through to understand the underlying direction of housing within our market place. So first, just a brief diversion into the noise. Of course I mentioned the election, then we have the “fiscal cliff”,  the  “national debt”, taxing the “rich”, the stock market gyrations, the European union and  Greece, Spain, Portugal or Italy’s mess, China’s exports and buying our debt, last but … (0 comments)

howard sumner: price ranges, sales, credit issues? - 12/06/12 08:22 AM
Looking at trends in pricing over the past few years it got me to wondering about why with a 16% drop in interest rates from 2011 and a 47.1% drop from 2007, what was the makeup of the factors causing  a 3% rise in price from 2011 and a 3% rise from 2007 when size is factored in, or said another way based on size,  prices in 2007 and 2011 were identical even though interest rate environment was radically different from 2012 and in theory that differential should produce more pronounced changes in price movement. So that leads to the question … (2 comments)

howard sumner: How clear can you forcast -- Yellowstone County-- your city or Area - 12/02/12 10:43 AM
Thoughts to ponder for Real estate in Yellowstone County
2011 to 2012
Residential sales, number of units up 20%
Inventory, number of units,  down by 21%
Price, considering size, up solid 3%
Interest rates are down 16%
Number of employed in Yellowstone county is up 2.4%
Number of three bedroom homes w/garage for rent down 12.22%
 
2008 to 2012
Residential sales, number of units up 1.5%
Inventory, number of units, down by 34.73%
Price, considering size, up solid 1.5%
Interest rates are down 44.9%
Number of employed in Yellowstone county is down .09%
Number of three bedroom homes w/garage for … (1 comments)

howard sumner: Happy Thanks giving - 11/22/12 07:54 AM
Just want to  wish everyone a happy thanks giving day
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howard sumner: new home constuction Billings Montana - 11/01/12 08:07 AM
AS THE ECONOMIC CYCLE CHANGES, THE QUESTION COMES TO MIND, HOW  ARE WE DOING AS COMPARED TO PAST YEARS PERFORMANCE , HOW FAR CAN  HOME SALES AND RESIDENTIAL BUILDING RUN
Since 2006 which was the peak in residential sales and 2003 was the peak in permits for new construction we have been in a wild ride, first a market driven by first time buyers tax credits 2009, then a market driven by a tax credit to anyone that bought a home 2010 and now a market driven by historically unheard of interest rates the low 3’s for 30 year and … (1 comments)

howard sumner: home purchaser rise? - 10/30/12 05:58 AM
Lending institutions are require to report activity under “HMDA” this does not of course cover all activity within the market place, yet produces some interesting information to ponder
2005  you had 11,672,852 loan applications  versus 7,382,012 loans received
or a  63% success rate for completing a loan
2011 you had 3,816,222 loan applications  versus 2,416,874 loans received
or a  63% success rate for completing a loan
From 2005 to 2011 you have a drop of 67.3% in loan applications and a 67.25% drop in loans received
Using the information from Data Quick that shows home sales in … (0 comments)

howard sumner: price of a home since 2000 yellowstone county - 10/27/12 11:06 AM
 
I asked myself since the year 2000, twelve years ago, does it cost more to buy a home now in Yellowstone County. Several things influence the answer to that question, the absolute price of the home, the taxes and insurance, the interest rate, and inflation since that time and wages.  I went back and took the median sales price of each year, assumed 100% financing at the Freddie mac rate for that year, and then used 30% of the payment to approximate the yearly taxes and insurance. Below are the graphic results and the main numbers.
Consumer price index                     … (0 comments)

howard sumner: ownership vs renter spending patterns - 10/26/12 02:51 PM
intersting information from the labor bueara comparing the spending patterns of owenrs and renters

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howard sumner: national new home constuction - 10/24/12 04:18 PM
 
Always in the year of first upward movement from a decline you see what appears to outsized gains in a percentages rise, and that is what you see in permits, in sales, and the total of single family combined with multifamily permits, yet to give a little perspective, on a national basis it is estimated that we destroy about 200,000 housing units a year, so the net effect is an increase of 694,000 housing units added to supply. When you think about the drop still between 70 to 60% from the peak  and  35 to 43% from the fifty year … (0 comments)

 
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Howard Sumner

Your Real Estate Source, Your Results Solution!!

Billings, MT

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Howard Sumner Real Estate

Address: 404 north 31st street, suite 130, billings, mt, 59101

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