realtor: Market Update at a Glance August 2014 - 09/16/14 07:36 AM
August 31st 30th 2014
 “End of the Summer”
First let’s look at closed transactions, August 2014 continued with fewer homes closed. Number of closed sales in Yellowstone County are 1424 August 2014 as compared to 1516 in August 2013, a 6% decline. Monthly year over year same story monthly year over year August 2013 199, August 2104 187.
Residential pending unit sales are down -3% years over year.  To compare; 2013 August pending unit sales were up 6% over August 2012. (2012 there were 350 pending sales; 2013 there were 372 pending sales, 2014 there are 359 pending sales).   
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realtor: The market and price point performance - 08/23/14 12:36 PM
The market and price point performance
$200,000 and Above
When you segment the market by price range you can more clearly see underlying trends that show up in the “average” performance numbers. Additionally, depending on the price point, there are definitely amenities that are required as you move up in the market. You can tell amenity requirements by the price per square foot pricing. I would caution, not to take the simplistic approach, of multiplying a home size by the price per square foot, since location, age and condition can affect the variability of that number: as an example the 500k … (1 comments)

realtor: Market Update at a Glance July 2014 - 08/20/14 09:51 AM
JULY 31ST 2014
“SECOND HALF IS WHERE THE GAME IS WON?”
Two Months of summer gone, second half of the year beginning, so which way will be the direction of the market. First let’s look at closed transactions, July 2014 essentially matched last year in homes closed, 188 closed in 2013, 187 reported so far in July 2014. Number of closed sales in Yellowstone County are 1194 through July  as compared to 1268 in 2013, a 6% decline, so the market is creeping on matching 2013, one factor that stumped us all, is interest rate, the 10 year treasury, is actually … (1 comments)

realtor: Is renting cheaper than buying in Billings montana? - 08/04/14 06:14 AM
Since there seems to be a lot of press about how it may be better to rent than buy a home, I thought I would compare current asking price for renting different types of homes Yellowstone county to the same basic description of the selling price of a home and the payment needed to own that home. The monthly home payment is figured at 100%  financing with a FHA at 4.12% 30 year loan, using 26% for taxes and insurance . The asking price for rents comes from my weekly survey of rental availability. Through this weekend that would be over … (1 comments)

realtor: Market update at glance June 2014 - 07/10/14 07:45 AM
Market update at glance
June 30th 2014
“Questions to ponder about the market”
The first half of 2014 is past, now is the time to ask questions about the direction of the market and comparisons to gain and illuminate knowledge that might be found.
So instead of my usually format, questions will be both the information and thoughts of where the market might be. All the question comparisons are from January 1st to June 30th, 2014 to 2013 - 2013 to 2012.
#1 Why are closed sales down year over year in 2014 by -6%, when they were up +9% … (0 comments)

realtor: Nationally New construction, existing home sales and mobile homes - 06/24/14 08:58 AM
Just to cover all the bases, I have expanded this report to include existing home sales and mobile home placements. Globally it now covers the entire housing segment. Permits include both mutli family and single family permits.
So let’s look at the playing field to see how we are doing  9 ½  years on since the last peak.
As a an additional side note the mortgage brokers association reported in May, year over year new purchase application index down 15% and the refinance index is down 73% year over year.
 
Hmmmmmmmmmm I wonder if that means anything
 
 
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realtor: Market Update at a Glance May 2014 - 06/07/14 01:56 PM
 
“Winter of discontent and other Myths”
Safely into late spring and the beginning of summer, worth one last time to ask how much winter effected the direction of the market. First let’s look at closed transactions, May 2014 continued with fewer homes closed. Number of closed sales in Yellowstone County are 716 as compared to 788 in 2013, a 9% decline, so in June sales would need to increase approximately 29% above June 2013 to reach the same midyear units closed and put 2014 on track to match 2013, an unlikely event, when May had close to perfect weather and … (0 comments)

realtor: Does it "cost" More to buy a home today? - 05/12/14 09:16 AM
When I review the market in Yellowstone county I always try and think of different ways to look at what happens both long term and short term.
With that in mind it prompted me to ask the subject line question. And there are many ways to answer the question, your point of view may determine your answer.
Let’s look at the information on Yellowstone county since 2006, since it was the peak year in sales and we have not reached that level again and most probably will not reach that level of unit sales in 2014 either.
 
First let just … (29 comments)

realtor: Market Update at a Glance April 2014 - 05/08/14 11:12 AM
APRIL 30ST 2014
“APRIL SHOWERS, BRING MAY FLOWERS?”
Now one third of the year completed no question about how much winter effected the direction of the market. First let’s look at closed transactions,  April 2014 continued with fewer homes closed, number of closed sales in Yellowstone County are 519 as compared to 519 in 2013, a 12% decline, one percentage point  less decline than  in January,  February and March, the market showing  a little strength in the underlying sales.  
Single family permits: we see total single family permits for the first four months  have a decrease of 29% for year … (0 comments)

realtor: market update at glance march 2014 - 04/09/14 07:21 AM
“WINTER OVER, DOES SPRING ARRIVE?”
With the first quarter of the year completed, still questions about how much winter effected the direction of the market. First let’s look at closed transactions, March 2014 continues with fewer homes closed, number of closed sales in Yellowstone County are 313 as compared to 427 in 2013, a 13% decline, the same percentage as in January & February, even with cold and snow, the market did not fall further behind, so the question is, does this show strength in the underlying market.  
Single family permits: we see total single family permits have a decrease … (3 comments)

realtor: Rent versus Buy Yellowstone County - 03/21/14 01:17 PM
 
I ran into an interesting article about rent versus buy the article contained a calculator comparing renting versus buying that showed, what I thought, a realistic cost comparisons. The calculator let you change the the price and rents so I ran the information for Yellowstone County. 
 
The housing costs I used were from the MLS going back to March 1st 2013, the information from the MLS showed that average and median home sold in Yellowstone county contained four bedrooms and two baths.
 
The average sales price since March 1st 2013  of $239,332 and the median (half selling for more, half selling for less) was $218,000.
 
For the rental information I used a … (1 comments)

realtor: Market update at glance february 2014 - 03/15/14 02:07 PM
 
 
“WHICH TEA LEAVES HAVE MEANING?”
 
With two months of the year completed, still questions about which indicators best discern the direction of the market. First let’s look at closed transactions, February 2014 continues with fewer homes closed, number of closed sales in Yellowstone County are 235 as compared to 269 in 2013, a 13% decline, the same percentage as in January, even with record cold and snow, the market did not fall further behind, so the question is, does this tea leaf show strength in the underlying market.  
 
Single family permits: we see total single family … (1 comments)

realtor: new home sales perspective - 02/14/14 08:01 AM
Looking back through time to give perspective
 
New home sales in December were 28,000 thousand, in 1963 fifty years ago they were 31,000

 
 
In 1963 the population was 190,472,000 in 2013 317,479,000 an increase  of 66% new home sales decreased 22.5% in the same time period

 
In 1963 the Nonfarm employment was 57,360,000 in 2013 137,386,000 an increase  of 239.5% new home sales decreased 22.5% in the same time period
 
 
So the thought to ponder……………… if new home sales are lower than in 1963 with an increase employment of 239.5% who is trying … (0 comments)

realtor: Market update at glance January 2014 - 02/10/14 09:45 AM
January 31st 2014
“THE ANSWER OF THE YEAR?”
We start 2014 with lots of questions about the direction of the market, with conflicting signals and yellow flashing warning lights. First let’s look at closed transactions, changed dynamics in 2013 continue in 2014 with fewer homes closed, number of sales in Yellowstone County are 112 as compared to 129 in 2013 , a 13% decline,  only one month of small data, does not a trend make. Yet In single family permits we see total single family permits have a decrease of 26% for January year over year (2014 20 permits, 2013 … (0 comments)

realtor: national new home constructions 2013 end of year - 01/27/14 12:30 PM
 
End of the year new home sales released today. So a great time to look back and ask the perianal question  “Has single family new construction nationally recovered?”
 
You would think that after eight years from the peak that would be an irrelevant question at this point, unfortunately not. Since 2005 which was the peak in the building cycle interest rate has dropped -37.12% from 6.33% average in 2005 to 3.98% average for 2013. In any “normal” economy (whatever that is now) that type of shift would have home sales explode. Yet from 2005 that peak year we see … (0 comments)

realtor: Market Update at Glance december 2013 End of the Year - 01/11/14 11:45 AM
December 31st 2013
“End of the Year, Dichotomies”
Wow another year and it went by at light speed. 2013 was a two part year, the first half a rocket ship headed for the best year Yellowstone County has ever seen, the second half, while good, had changed dynamics and we ended still 10.62% fewer homes sold than 2006 the peak year for number of sales in Yellowstone County. First I will look at the changes from year end 2012 to year end 2013, and second, I will and look at second half of 2013.  In single family permits we see … (0 comments)

realtor: have housing costs gone up? - 12/19/13 11:38 AM
When thinking about the question of housing cost, the question of which is the most important to the consumer, is it the purchase price or is it the monthly payment. While I would not claim that it is absolutely one way or another, generally speaking, my experience is, that monthly cost tends to be the deciding factor in decision making process and yes the purchase price does drive the monthly cost along with interest rate , taxes and insurance.  I thought it would be of interest to look at the market in terms of price range and the most probable monthly … (0 comments)

realtor: Market Update at a Glance November 2013 - 12/07/13 11:13 AM
“Looking Back”
 
I am going to do two things month, which will make this a long report overall. First I will look at the changes form November 2012 to November 2013, then second I will go back and look at 2006 (the peak year in residential sales) and compare to 2013 to see how we have done.  In single family permits we see the fourth  year over year monthly decrease (permits down 13% from November 2012,  total single family permits still have a gain of 17% for the year, as a comparison in march 2013 permits were up 66% year … (2 comments)

realtor: New Construction Nationally - 12/04/13 02:23 PM
 
When our friends in Washington D.C. shutdown, it meant that some data was not collected. Primarily it effected starts not permit and sales, well that is not quite true, the data below is for October. Sales were not released until December which is a month later than it would normally be and both September and October were released at the same time. The question that comes to my mind is if  you were use to making $100,000 per year for the last 50 years and  had weathered the recession and now were making $68,000 a year would say you had … (1 comments)

realtor: NEW CONSTRUCTION BILLINGS MONTANA - 12/02/13 11:01 AM
 
THIS TIME OF YEAR I START ASKING MYSELF QUESTIONS ABOUT THE MARKET PLACE AND THE ANSWERS I ALWAYS FIND INTERESTING
 
NEW CONSTRUCTION IN BILLINGS AREA
 
WHEN LOOKING HOW WELL OR POOR WE ARE DOING THERE ARE MANY DIFFERENT WAYS TO LOOK AT THE SEGMENT.
 
#1 COMPARING NUMBER OF SINGLE FAMILY PERMITS ISSUES
 
#2 COMPARING SINGLE FAMILY PERMITS PLUS DUPLEX PERMITS MULTIPLIED BY 2 FOR LIVING UNITS
 
#3 COMPARING TOTAL DOLLAR VALUE OF PERMITS ISSUED
 
#4 COMPARING POPULATION TO TOTAL OF PERMITS ISSUED
 
#5 COMPARING EMPLOYMENT TOTAL OF PERMITS ISSUED
 
 
 
MY … (0 comments)

 
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Howard Sumner

Your Real Estate Source, Your Results Solution!!

Billings, MT

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Howard Sumner Real Estate

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