realtor: Market update at glance June 2014 - 07/10/14 07:45 AM
Market update at glance
June 30th 2014
“Questions to ponder about the market”
The first half of 2014 is past, now is the time to ask questions about the direction of the market and comparisons to gain and illuminate knowledge that might be found.
So instead of my usually format, questions will be both the information and thoughts of where the market might be. All the question comparisons are from January 1st to June 30th, 2014 to 2013 - 2013 to 2012.
#1 Why are closed sales down year over year in 2014 by -6%, when they were up +9% … (0 comments)

realtor: Nationally New construction, existing home sales and mobile homes - 06/24/14 08:58 AM
Just to cover all the bases, I have expanded this report to include existing home sales and mobile home placements. Globally it now covers the entire housing segment. Permits include both mutli family and single family permits.
So let’s look at the playing field to see how we are doing  9 ½  years on since the last peak.
As a an additional side note the mortgage brokers association reported in May, year over year new purchase application index down 15% and the refinance index is down 73% year over year.
 
Hmmmmmmmmmm I wonder if that means anything
 
 
(0 comments)

realtor: Market Update at a Glance May 2014 - 06/07/14 01:56 PM
 
“Winter of discontent and other Myths”
Safely into late spring and the beginning of summer, worth one last time to ask how much winter effected the direction of the market. First let’s look at closed transactions, May 2014 continued with fewer homes closed. Number of closed sales in Yellowstone County are 716 as compared to 788 in 2013, a 9% decline, so in June sales would need to increase approximately 29% above June 2013 to reach the same midyear units closed and put 2014 on track to match 2013, an unlikely event, when May had close to perfect weather and … (0 comments)

realtor: Does it "cost" More to buy a home today? - 05/12/14 09:16 AM
When I review the market in Yellowstone county I always try and think of different ways to look at what happens both long term and short term.
With that in mind it prompted me to ask the subject line question. And there are many ways to answer the question, your point of view may determine your answer.
Let’s look at the information on Yellowstone county since 2006, since it was the peak year in sales and we have not reached that level again and most probably will not reach that level of unit sales in 2014 either.
 
First let just … (29 comments)

realtor: Market Update at a Glance April 2014 - 05/08/14 11:12 AM
APRIL 30ST 2014
“APRIL SHOWERS, BRING MAY FLOWERS?”
Now one third of the year completed no question about how much winter effected the direction of the market. First let’s look at closed transactions,  April 2014 continued with fewer homes closed, number of closed sales in Yellowstone County are 519 as compared to 519 in 2013, a 12% decline, one percentage point  less decline than  in January,  February and March, the market showing  a little strength in the underlying sales.  
Single family permits: we see total single family permits for the first four months  have a decrease of 29% for year … (0 comments)

realtor: market update at glance march 2014 - 04/09/14 07:21 AM
“WINTER OVER, DOES SPRING ARRIVE?”
With the first quarter of the year completed, still questions about how much winter effected the direction of the market. First let’s look at closed transactions, March 2014 continues with fewer homes closed, number of closed sales in Yellowstone County are 313 as compared to 427 in 2013, a 13% decline, the same percentage as in January & February, even with cold and snow, the market did not fall further behind, so the question is, does this show strength in the underlying market.  
Single family permits: we see total single family permits have a decrease … (3 comments)

realtor: Rent versus Buy Yellowstone County - 03/21/14 01:17 PM
 
I ran into an interesting article about rent versus buy the article contained a calculator comparing renting versus buying that showed, what I thought, a realistic cost comparisons. The calculator let you change the the price and rents so I ran the information for Yellowstone County. 
 
The housing costs I used were from the MLS going back to March 1st 2013, the information from the MLS showed that average and median home sold in Yellowstone county contained four bedrooms and two baths.
 
The average sales price since March 1st 2013  of $239,332 and the median (half selling for more, half selling for less) was $218,000.
 
For the rental information I used a … (1 comments)

realtor: Market update at glance february 2014 - 03/15/14 02:07 PM
 
 
“WHICH TEA LEAVES HAVE MEANING?”
 
With two months of the year completed, still questions about which indicators best discern the direction of the market. First let’s look at closed transactions, February 2014 continues with fewer homes closed, number of closed sales in Yellowstone County are 235 as compared to 269 in 2013, a 13% decline, the same percentage as in January, even with record cold and snow, the market did not fall further behind, so the question is, does this tea leaf show strength in the underlying market.  
 
Single family permits: we see total single family … (1 comments)

realtor: new home sales perspective - 02/14/14 08:01 AM
Looking back through time to give perspective
 
New home sales in December were 28,000 thousand, in 1963 fifty years ago they were 31,000

 
 
In 1963 the population was 190,472,000 in 2013 317,479,000 an increase  of 66% new home sales decreased 22.5% in the same time period

 
In 1963 the Nonfarm employment was 57,360,000 in 2013 137,386,000 an increase  of 239.5% new home sales decreased 22.5% in the same time period
 
 
So the thought to ponder……………… if new home sales are lower than in 1963 with an increase employment of 239.5% who is trying … (0 comments)

realtor: Market update at glance January 2014 - 02/10/14 09:45 AM
January 31st 2014
“THE ANSWER OF THE YEAR?”
We start 2014 with lots of questions about the direction of the market, with conflicting signals and yellow flashing warning lights. First let’s look at closed transactions, changed dynamics in 2013 continue in 2014 with fewer homes closed, number of sales in Yellowstone County are 112 as compared to 129 in 2013 , a 13% decline,  only one month of small data, does not a trend make. Yet In single family permits we see total single family permits have a decrease of 26% for January year over year (2014 20 permits, 2013 … (0 comments)

realtor: national new home constructions 2013 end of year - 01/27/14 12:30 PM
 
End of the year new home sales released today. So a great time to look back and ask the perianal question  “Has single family new construction nationally recovered?”
 
You would think that after eight years from the peak that would be an irrelevant question at this point, unfortunately not. Since 2005 which was the peak in the building cycle interest rate has dropped -37.12% from 6.33% average in 2005 to 3.98% average for 2013. In any “normal” economy (whatever that is now) that type of shift would have home sales explode. Yet from 2005 that peak year we see … (0 comments)

realtor: Market Update at Glance december 2013 End of the Year - 01/11/14 11:45 AM
December 31st 2013
“End of the Year, Dichotomies”
Wow another year and it went by at light speed. 2013 was a two part year, the first half a rocket ship headed for the best year Yellowstone County has ever seen, the second half, while good, had changed dynamics and we ended still 10.62% fewer homes sold than 2006 the peak year for number of sales in Yellowstone County. First I will look at the changes from year end 2012 to year end 2013, and second, I will and look at second half of 2013.  In single family permits we see … (0 comments)

realtor: have housing costs gone up? - 12/19/13 11:38 AM
When thinking about the question of housing cost, the question of which is the most important to the consumer, is it the purchase price or is it the monthly payment. While I would not claim that it is absolutely one way or another, generally speaking, my experience is, that monthly cost tends to be the deciding factor in decision making process and yes the purchase price does drive the monthly cost along with interest rate , taxes and insurance.  I thought it would be of interest to look at the market in terms of price range and the most probable monthly … (0 comments)

realtor: Market Update at a Glance November 2013 - 12/07/13 11:13 AM
“Looking Back”
 
I am going to do two things month, which will make this a long report overall. First I will look at the changes form November 2012 to November 2013, then second I will go back and look at 2006 (the peak year in residential sales) and compare to 2013 to see how we have done.  In single family permits we see the fourth  year over year monthly decrease (permits down 13% from November 2012,  total single family permits still have a gain of 17% for the year, as a comparison in march 2013 permits were up 66% year … (2 comments)

realtor: New Construction Nationally - 12/04/13 02:23 PM
 
When our friends in Washington D.C. shutdown, it meant that some data was not collected. Primarily it effected starts not permit and sales, well that is not quite true, the data below is for October. Sales were not released until December which is a month later than it would normally be and both September and October were released at the same time. The question that comes to my mind is if  you were use to making $100,000 per year for the last 50 years and  had weathered the recession and now were making $68,000 a year would say you had … (1 comments)

realtor: NEW CONSTRUCTION BILLINGS MONTANA - 12/02/13 11:01 AM
 
THIS TIME OF YEAR I START ASKING MYSELF QUESTIONS ABOUT THE MARKET PLACE AND THE ANSWERS I ALWAYS FIND INTERESTING
 
NEW CONSTRUCTION IN BILLINGS AREA
 
WHEN LOOKING HOW WELL OR POOR WE ARE DOING THERE ARE MANY DIFFERENT WAYS TO LOOK AT THE SEGMENT.
 
#1 COMPARING NUMBER OF SINGLE FAMILY PERMITS ISSUES
 
#2 COMPARING SINGLE FAMILY PERMITS PLUS DUPLEX PERMITS MULTIPLIED BY 2 FOR LIVING UNITS
 
#3 COMPARING TOTAL DOLLAR VALUE OF PERMITS ISSUED
 
#4 COMPARING POPULATION TO TOTAL OF PERMITS ISSUED
 
#5 COMPARING EMPLOYMENT TOTAL OF PERMITS ISSUED
 
 
 
MY … (0 comments)

realtor: County employment Montana - 11/24/13 09:42 AM
 
Since our friends in Washington D.C. decided to shut down for a while. Employment numbers have not been published for a couple months for Montana. Always good to see what is happening with employment since more people working means,  in all likely hood, more homes will be sold. Although not a direct correlation employment is a good predictor, since it is impossible now to qualify for a loan without income.
 
 
 
 
 
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realtor: Market update at glance october 2013 - 11/05/13 06:19 PM
 
October 31st 2013
 
“Market Qualifiers”
 
One  theme that I always carry with me about the real estate market or the economy in general is the qualifier to any analysis I do is “ unless our friends in Washington D.C. do something stupid all bets are off” we have now been through a period where I believe the comment applies in spades. So why are the actions or more appropriately inactions of our friends a concern here in paradise where we live? First when people get nervous or are unsure what is occurring they hesitate or hold back.   In … (0 comments)

realtor: Have new financing rules affected the market - 10/19/13 10:55 AM
 
You would assume if the price of something dropped that was desirable to purchase that sales of that product would increase. Then why in the housing market would number and percentage of the market drop in the lower price ranges if it cost about 18.5% less to buy today than it did in 2007?
 

 

 

 
 
 
 
(3 comments)

realtor: Market update at glance spetmebr 2013 Billings Montana - 10/10/13 11:31 AM
 
Market update at glance
 
September 30th 2013
 
The last quarter shuffle
 
Three Quarters of the year over, the residential market in Billings entering the last Quarter of the year,   what behavior might we expect from the market place. Typically the market slows in the last quarter inventory normally shrinks and sales slow as we head into the holidays, usually the real noticeable shift comes in the second week of November just before thanks giving.                                                                                                            In single family permits we see the second year over year monthly decrease (permits down 28% from September 2012, yet total single … (1 comments)

 
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