UCLA Anderson Forecast - Some Hopeful News For Housing?

By
Real Estate Agent with 1st Action Real Estate

If you didn't see todays Inman news, here's a summary of current reports from the UCLA Anderson Forecast. Overall, not the cheeriest of reports, as reports go. It summarized the current economic outlook as 'bleak'. But there are a few 'bright' spots - and to the extent they can be construed as good news, many involve housing.

For example, one report "The Global Slump" opines that the 'housing market can't get much lower' and calls for a tepid recovery in 2010. That's good housing news isn't it. We may be bumping along that rocky bottom NAR talked about last year.

A California-focused report "The California Economy; Running Out Of Gas"  declares that the correction in the housing market is almost complete in the state. That's more good housing news. 

Click here for the Inman summary:
Click here for the UCLA Anderson synopsis:

 

UCLA forecast: 'Tepid recovery' in 2010

U.S. unemployment to top 9% through 2011

Inman News


This recession will be the longest and most damaging of the postwar era, according to the latest forecast report from University of California, Los Angeles, spanning an estimated 19-24 months and building to a U.S. unemployment rate of 10.5 percent in mid-2010.

In "The Global Slump," one of the economic reports featured in the UCLA Anderson Forecast, senior economist David Shulman states that most of the "contractionary forces" on the economy "will have been spent" by the close of 2009. But the employment recovery from this recession "will be long and arduous," he notes, with the unemployment rate sticking above 9 percent through the end of 2011.

The housing market "can't get much lower," the report states, and calls for a "tepid recovery" in 2010.

The loss of wealth has been extensive: Consumers have already lost an estimated $5.5 trillion in home values and $9 trillion in stock values.

####

A separate report by Edward E. Leamer, forecast director, describes the regression of the U.S. economy as heading "backward into the future. It's awkward and slow, but it's the only way to go."

An "ideal stimulus" plan, according to Leamer, has a focus on homes, cars, retail businesses and restaurants, and he questions the adequacy of the Obama administration's stimulus package.

####

A separate, California-focused report, "The California Economy: Running Out of Gas," declares that the "the correction in the housing market is almost complete" in the state and "the downturn in the retail sector is nearing the end of its run.

####

Jerry Nickelsburg, senior economist for the UCLA Anderson Forecast, states that general economic weakness across California will lead to continuing job loss in construction and manufacturing sectors -- it hit a 26-year high at 10.5 percent in February.

Home prices in California are off by an average of 32 percent since peaking in 2006, according to the report, "and all of the appreciation since early 2004 has been lost."

Adjusted for inflation, fourth-quarter-2008 home prices were about 6.8 percent above fourth-quarter-2002 levels.


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Show All Comments
Rainmaker
19,586
Winston Westbrook
Westbrook National Real Estate Co - Victorville, CA

Great post Gene! Thanks for posting this up. Hopefully it's true that we have been hovering around the bottom of the market for sometime now. Seems like it should pick up again soon

March 25, 2009 07:36 PM #1
Rainmaker
271,173
Ken Cook
Digital Content Creator - Marietta, GA
Writer For Hire

The doorbell is ringing and recovery is knocking. This is the time to get ready for the initial "bump up" which will seem like an explosion. On the other hand we could be stuck on the rocky bottom for as much as 18 months more. Still, I'm trying to be ready for the ramp up to normalcy ... whatever that is.

March 25, 2009 11:05 PM #2
Rainmaker
384,961
John Walters
Frank Rubi Real Estate - Slidell, LA
Licensed in Louisiana

I think California is still in trouble.  Many of the producers have left town for a less taxing state.  Too many users left in California.  The unemployment rate is over 10% already and likely to go higher.  You have huge problems over there and no one with the guts to tackle them it seems.

March 26, 2009 02:29 PM #3
Rainmaker
225,023
Gene Wunderlich
1st Action Real Estate - Murrieta, CA
Realtor & Legislative Liaison

Ken - I think being prepared is the best approach. It'll happen eventually so may as well get yourself ready to make the most ofit.

John - Hey - thanks for pi**ing on my parade, pal. Here I'm trying to pull a glimmer of hope out of this pile of steaming doo and here comes John. Just joking. Thois state is in mucho deep doodoo and about to get worse. But at least people are buying houses left and right. My son is getting 30+ visitors to open houses during the week and pulling real live buyers with cash. It's all good.

March 28, 2009 02:49 PM #4
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Rainmaker
225,023

Gene Wunderlich

Realtor & Legislative Liaison
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