Market bottom or are we being fooled???

By
Real Estate Broker/Owner with Legacy Land & Homes, LLC

Wow, my head is spinning. Depending on which media source you read or watch, either the sky is falling or as the politicians put it "we've pulled back from the brink". Well I'm no economist and I don't play one on TV so I won't speculate about any "brink". But I do know real estate, real estate markets and how to determine the bottom. And we're not there yet!!!!!

Do the statistics (for Dutchess County NY) show the market decline slowing down.... well sort of. The decline in average sales prices has dropped, we were seeing over 24% year over year decline and now (August 2009 vs August 2008) it's down to a 6.6% decline. Days on market and number of listings are stabilizing some what. So common sense would say the economists may be right when it comes to the Real Estate Market.... right?

Wrong!!!!!

Is the market decline slowing....yes. But it's about to happen all over again! What the media and the so called experts (I'd like to know how you get that title EXPERT.....  think I'll apply for that title, anyone know where I should send in my application.... sorry sarcasim got the best of me!) forgot to mention is the foreclosure moratorium that didn't end until March of this year. So  all the foreclosure that were in process STOPPED! No new foreclosure could start. So what do you think happened in April? You don't have to be  an expert to figure this out.... the courts are jammed and we have a second wave of foreclosures coming.

Here in NY it takes approximately 13 months to complete the foreclosure process. You do the math.... we'll see the 2nd wave in early to mid 2010. The number of REO's will explode, decreasing market values further and causing a ripple effect through the economy....AGAIN! But that's just my opinion, what do I know? ;-)

Posted by
Legacy Land & Homes LLC Logo
Curt Darragh  
"Your Satisfaction Is Our Legacy"

 

10 Raymond Avenue
Poughkeepsie, NY 12603
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Rainer
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Jon Budish
Resident Realty - Fort Collins, CO

I think you've hit the nail on the head, which means you'll never be considered an expert (sorry). To be an expert you need to be consistently wrong.

September 16, 2009 02:45 PM #1
Rainmaker
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Curt Darragh
Legacy Land & Homes, LLC - Poughkeepsie, NY
RE Broker

I knew there was a reason I couldn't find the application anywhere ;-) Thanks Jon!

September 18, 2009 10:56 AM #2
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Rainmaker
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Curt Darragh

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