Ready for the DOUBLE DIP RECESSION???

By
Real Estate Agent with Bartlett Real Estate Group, llc 0374754

Mixed reactions from the River North Area of Austin Texas.  The number of homes on the market continued its downward trend with a reduction of 7% from last year; though, closings were down 6% from last September.  It is pretty tough to make any assumptions based on one month, but the reduction in closings is a red flag that needs to be watched.  Last October we saw the implosion of the financial markets that took a major toll in the closings in November through this past May.  If the market is beginning a recovery we should see substantial closing increases during these same upcoming months.

The fear that still resides is the possibility of a double dip recession, whereby the market makes a modest stabilization, and then takes a second fall.  What I am watching closely is the lagging indicator of unemployment numbers.  Though it is a lagging indicator, it does help give one an idea of the direction in which the country or area HAS been going.  At this time we are not seeing any positive change in unemployment numbers and this will remain a concern.

I, nor any economist, can not accurately predict where an economy is going as it is virtually impossible to predict global human behavior from BILLIONS of people.  Bottom line is that we need to see job growth before we can see a serious recovery.  At this point the stock market and real estate market are improving and that is very good news.  The question arises as to whether this will continue, or will job creation start in the upcoming months and we will see stronger growth, or will we see a double dip recession and see a reversal of our improved economy.   So far, optimism remains good; and, optimism can create positive movement, as pessimism can create negative movement.

So the advice I can give is to pass on optimism.  It is contagious.

For a detailed report   C L I C K   H E R E ! ! !  

River North Area sales averages about $516,000 per home and includes, BUT is not limited to, the following communities:

  • River Place on Lake Austin
  • Steiner Ranch
  • Westminster Glen
  • Villa Montana
  • Grandview Hills/The Parke
  • Glenlake Estates/River Pointe
  • Long Canyon
  • Greenshores
  • Shepherd Mountain
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Rainer
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Alix Pinzon
Open Mortgage, LLC - Downey, CA
(562)743-6086

Ya, forget the old way of thinking that wars are good for the economy, what we need is a trade war.  Then we'd all be busy.

Oct 05, 2009 04:24 PM #1
Rainmaker
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Charles Stallions
Charles Stallions Real Estate Services - Pensacola, FL
800-309-3414 - Pensacola, Pace or Gulf Breeze, Fl.

I just haven't seen enough of an upswing to really say that. I think our market will go down another 18 to 23% to prices of 97. Inventory is dropping but it was so inflated to start with. Then 50% of the homes coming on the market are overpriced as well.

Oct 08, 2009 06:56 PM #2
Rainmaker
448,331
TIM MONCRIEF
Bartlett Real Estate Group, llc - Austin, TX
$44,530,000 2013 Production (breg)
Charles: you may be right on. We are floating around '98 prices; but that is because we have been hit with two recessions in Austin. Still debating whether two blows are better or worse than one huge punch.
Oct 09, 2009 10:48 AM #3
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Rainmaker
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TIM MONCRIEF

$44,530,000 2013 Production (breg)
#1 KW Group '07-'12 (nwmc)
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