Unemployment Experiencing A “Structural” Increase

By
Services for Real Estate Pros with TheHousingGuru.com

In a presentation made today, Dennis Lockhart, President and CEO of the Atlanta Fed has predicted only a modest economic recovery with unemployment experiencing a “structural” increase. Lockhart pointed out several reasons why employment may be establishing a new normal, with rates to remain above those of past years as jobs are eliminated, workers have difficulty relocating, and a great number of applicants lack the skills necessary for employment.

 

While the report attempted to add a positive spin to the facts, it seems clear that the expectation is for a recovery unlike those of past recessions and one that will lack the fundamentals necessary to dramatically improve the jobless rate.

 

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Rainmaker
351,538
Damon Gettier
Damon Gettier & Associates, REALTORS- Roanoke Va Short Sale Expert - Roanoke, VA
Broker/Owner ABRM, GRI, CDPE

Until we get back to producing what we consume, I think we will be in trouble.

Apr 01, 2010 03:29 PM #18
Rainmaker
271,173
Ken Cook
Digital Content Creator - Marietta, GA
Writer For Hire

November 2, 2010 - just keep repeating it to yourself.

Apr 01, 2010 04:15 PM #19
Rainmaker
453,503
John Mulkey
TheHousingGuru.com - Waleska, GA
Housing Guru

Daniel - We are in charge of choosing the politicians we send to DC; if we send better ones, we'll benefit.

Damon - While an admirable goal, I doubt it will ever happen.

Ken - It's my mantra!

Apr 01, 2010 04:35 PM #20
Ambassador
1,563,910
Christine Donovan
Donovan Blatt Realty - Costa Mesa, CA
Broker/Attorney 800-610-7253 DRE01267479 - Costa M

This permanent lack of job recovery because of the loss of jobs either to other countries or permanently is something I've figured was going to be a problem with the recovery.

Apr 01, 2010 04:47 PM #21
Rainmaker
1,270,039
Richie Alan Naggar Author PEARLS SERIES of books
People first then business! Ran Right Realty Riverside, Ca - Riverside, CA
on LIFE and LOVE plus Real Estate too!

What is scary is that it took years to build up those unemployment numbers, then years to lose them all and it will take years to get them back. Meanwhile, what do we do? How do you make a living, pay bills, eat, make repairs, buy gas, insurance and dare I say it....PAY YOUR MORTGAGE? We are in trouble. I do believe that OBAMA should make all his next efforts focused around housing and employment period. What good is health-care without the other two? I remember reading what President Bush said after the second plane crashed into the buildings...."We are at war! I do not want to hear about anything else except that. Make it your priority for this administration". That is what I would like Obama to do. Thank you John for a yummy post!

Apr 01, 2010 04:58 PM #22
Rainmaker
453,503
John Mulkey
TheHousingGuru.com - Waleska, GA
Housing Guru

Christine - High unemployment is expected to be the new normal--not a good thing.

Richie - Unless something new is thrown into the mix--which could happen--we're facing high unemployment for a long time. 

It would be nice if American technology would rescue us, but it seems unlikely.  The Chinese are moving ahead in many areas. We were supposed to be solar technology giants, but that industry is now dominated by China.

Apr 01, 2010 06:36 PM #23
Ambassador
883,519
Lane Bailey
Century 21 Results Realty - Suwanee, GA
Realtor & Car Guy

The changes we have seen in the last 14 months have built the structure of lower employment.  Shackling private enterprise with new taxes and mandates is NOT the way to bring back jobs. 

When Obama said he was going to have a laser-focus on jobs, did he say helping to create or destroy?  I don't recall...

Apr 01, 2010 07:29 PM #24
Ambassador
1,252,828
Erica Ramus
Erica Ramus - Ramus Realty Group - Pottsville, PA - Pottsville, PA
MRE, Schuylkill County PA Real Estate

Interesting info, John. Our area is running 10-11% unemployment right now. Not good.

Apr 01, 2010 08:28 PM #25
Anonymous
Anonymous
Anonymous

John,

I saw this too and read it. It didn't sound encouraging; he was speaking out of both sides of his mouth.

Apr 01, 2010 09:06 PM #26
Rainmaker
682,187
Ruthmarie Hicks
Keller Williams NY Realty - 120 Bloomingdale Road #101, White Plains NY 10605 - White Plains, NY

Lane,
The problem came to a head by 8 years of irresponsibility under BUSH. Let's take away any regulation and let's let corporate America have a completely free market free from all constraints. In other words, lets have anarchy. Let's destroy unions, lets destroy workers, lets keep a THUMB on wages and make sure that no one but the fat cats make any money. Let's  keep the masses in the their proper place - in POVERTY! The crash happened under Bush, it started with republican deregulation which began during the Reagan years  and it will start to be unraveled and put to rights under Obama.  You LOST the election - because the people were finally smart enough for one moment in time to realize that they were being thrown off a cliff.

 

Apr 01, 2010 09:09 PM #27
Rainmaker
453,503
John Mulkey
TheHousingGuru.com - Waleska, GA
Housing Guru

Lane - The unemployment problem has been a long time coming--failure to replace the manufacturing we have outsourced, with the expectation that we can raise wages and benefits forever--and was taken critical by the recession. Quite honestly, I doubt we will take the steps necessary to correct it; and we're certainly not doing so at the present time.

Erica - GA is over 10% too.

Terry - And these guys have more info at their disposal. It doesn't sound good.

Ruthmarie - While it's easy to point fingers at politicians with which you don't agree, our problems stem from politicians in general.  Washington has been filled with politicians on both sides of the aisle whose only interest is in promoting their agendas and lining the pockets of their cronies. Regardless of your political beliefs, both parties have taken millions from the lobbyists supporting the "fat cats," and without the opposition from Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, and others, the housing crisis might have been lessened.

Apr 01, 2010 09:55 PM #28
Rainmaker
648,019
William James Walton Sr.
WEICHERT, REALTORS® - Briotti Group - Waterbury, CT
Greater Waterbury Real Estate

John, you do have a point about sharing the blame among politicians. However, the larger point that RuthMarie made, about the public vs. private sector financing of innovation, is what too many of us miss...those who want to cut taxes and free investors to use their money to stimulate the economy are missing the boat - those who have loads of money aren't "investing" their money by creating more and more jobs, by funding research at the same level that the federal government does. That's why they have so much money in the bank, and why the government's involvement is so fundamentally necessary, because the economy can't depend on all the "fat cats" to turn it around.

Apr 01, 2010 10:32 PM #29
Rainmaker
558,669
Chris Olsen
Olsen Ziegler Realty - Cleveland, OH
Broker Owner Cleveland Ohio Real Estate

Hi John -- And since everything is local, here in Greater Cleveland, Ohio, where we have a heavier concentration of manufacturing, we have always (and the current recession is no different) been much longer ans slower to come out of a recession than the national averages.

Apr 01, 2010 11:29 PM #30
Rainmaker
337,352
Agent Aaron Vaughn, REALTOR® Listing Specialist
Capitol Home Team | Austin TX - Buda, TX
The $500 Million Marketing Advantage

Hello:

Excellent points made her. A fundamental shift is upon is, my friends. We better be ready!

Apr 01, 2010 11:32 PM #31
Rainmaker
453,503
John Mulkey
TheHousingGuru.com - Waleska, GA
Housing Guru

William - Actually there is little funding of innovation coming from the "stimulus."  I was also disappointed that more of the money wasn't dedicated to our crumbling infrastructure projects that were promised.  Certainly government can fund worthy projects, but much of what I've seen in recent years is filled with fraud, waste, and abuse.

Chris - And this time will be even slower.

Aaron - There will be change!

Apr 02, 2010 05:54 AM #32
Rainmaker
262,986
Pat & Steve Pribisko
Keller Williams Greater Cleveland West - Westlake, OH

What we are seeing in the Creater Cleveland OH Area is a increase in small businesses, many are comprised of one person with a home office.  I believe this is going to continue for the foreseeable future.

Apr 02, 2010 12:34 PM #33
Ambassador
883,519
Lane Bailey
Century 21 Results Realty - Suwanee, GA
Realtor & Car Guy

I don't see the "off-shoring" to be as big of a problem as many others do.  I can't source it right now, but I'd read that there were about 5x as many jobs "on-shored" (foreign companies employing Americans) as off-shored.  And I see the Japanese and German carmakers building here. 

While I think we need to strengthen our manufacturing, I also think that making it more expensive to employ Americans in America isn't a great strategy...

Apr 02, 2010 11:45 PM #34
Rainmaker
453,503
John Mulkey
TheHousingGuru.com - Waleska, GA
Housing Guru

Pat & Steve - There are lots of small start-ups; hopefully some can grow to big operations.

Lane - What I'm referring to isn't really "off-shoring," but the fact that we've given up our manufacturing edge. And while some of that is good, we can't just be a service oriented economy--and still be the major player we want to be.  I agree that we can't just continue to pay more to manufacture here; and our current course is a problem--one for which I have no solution to offer.

Apr 03, 2010 09:16 PM #35
Rainer
190,946
Stephen P. Panczak, Sr.
Keller Williams Realty of Palm Beaches - Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Realtor, Property Mgm't, LCAM

John - it's difficult to see anything positive with the unemployment issue when jobs are gone in manufacutring to other countries, other employers are running lean to keep their doors open.

Apr 04, 2010 05:22 AM #36
Rainmaker
453,503
John Mulkey
TheHousingGuru.com - Waleska, GA
Housing Guru

Stephen - I have to agree with Lockhart; some of the changes we're seeing will be permanent.

Apr 04, 2010 10:00 AM #37
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