Weekly Preview

By
Real Estate Agent with Delgado Realty

This week brings us the release of little relevant economic data for the markets to digest. We will, however, see the minutes from the last FOMC meeting and have a couple of Treasury auctions to watch. There are no relevant monthly economic reports scheduled for release this week, so look for the stock markets to heavily influence bond trading and mortgage rates.

There is nothing of relevance scheduled for tomorrow, but it is the first opportunity for the stock markets to react to Friday's employment numbers. They were closed Friday in observance of the Good Friday holiday, so we won't get to see how the stock markets feel about the data until tomorrow's open. The bond market was open until noon Friday and reacted negatively to its results. It is likely that stocks will react positively to the data, making it difficult for bonds to move higher and mortgage rates to improve tomorrow.

There is no relevant news scheduled until Tuesday afternoon when the FOMC minutes will be released. Market participants will be looking at these minutes closely. They give us insight to the Fed's current thought process and individual Fed member opinions. Any surprises in the 2:00 PM ET release, particularly about inflation or when the Fed may start raising key interest rates, could cause afternoon volatility in the markets Tuesday and possible changes in mortgage pricing.

The two Treasury auctions are scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday. There is a 10-year Treasury Note sale Wednesday and a 30-year Bond sale Thursday. We could see some weakness in bonds ahead of the sales as investing firms sell current holdings to prepare for them. This weakness is usually only temporary if the sales are met with a decent demand. The results of the auctions will be posted at 1:00 PM ET each day. If the demand from investors was strong, the bond market could rally during afternoon trading, leading to lower mortgage rates. If the sales were met with a poor demand, the afternoon weakness may cause upward revisions to mortgage pricing Wednesday and/or Thursday afternoon.

Overall, I am proceeding into this week very cautiously. There are several variables that could make this week very quiet or quite rocky for mortgage shoppers. Tuesday's FOMC minutes could very well be a major market mover or a complete non-factor. The same goes for the Treasury auctions. In other words, we may have a very calm week ahead of us, or we may see rates move noticeably several days. With no important economic data to drive trading and mortgage rates, bonds may move with stocks. This means large stock gains could lead to bond selling and higher mortgage rates. But stock weakness could lead to mortgage pricing improving for the week. Regardless, a lack of economic data is not reason to let our guard down if still floating an interest rate. Watch the market closely and proceed cautiously if not locked yet.

©Mortgage Commentary 2010

close

This entry hasn't been re-blogged:

Re-Blogged By Re-Blogged At

Anonymous
Post a Comment
Spam prevention

Accessibility option: listen to a question and answer it!

To submit the form,
drag the scissors to the circle on the side.

Type below the answer to what you hear. Numbers or words, lowercase:

Spam prevention

Accessibility option: listen to a question and answer it!

To submit the form,
drag the eye to the circle on the side.

Type below the answer to what you hear. Numbers or words, lowercase:

Anonymous
Post a Comment
Spam prevention

Accessibility option: listen to a question and answer it!

To submit the form,
drag the house to the circle on the side.

Type below the answer to what you hear. Numbers or words, lowercase:

Rainer
56,666

Charles Lisciandro

Ask me a question
*
*
*
Spam prevention

Accessibility option: listen to a question and answer it!

To submit the form,
drag the clock to the circle on the side.

Type below the answer to what you hear. Numbers or words, lowercase: