Connecticut Mortgage Rates April 19, 2010

By
Real Estate Mortgage Broker with MBC Interactive

Connecticut mortgage rates improved last week. Oil prices continued to fall off the beginning of the week. Fortunately Connecticut mortgage rates improved nicely amid the tame inflation environment. Unfortunately that trend reversed mid week as oil prices spiked tied to a report which indicated supplies declines. Stocks also surged higher as earnings reports generally pleased investors. The DOW easily eclipsed the 11,000 mark.

Despite this, Connecticut mortgage rates still managed to improve by about 1/4 of a discount point for the week.

Leading economic indicators data Monday will set the tone for trading this week. The producer inflation data will be the most important release. If inflation pressures emerge Connecticut mortgage rates may be pressured higher.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic
Indicator

Release
Date & Time

Consensus
Estimate


Analysis

Leading Economic Indicators

Monday, April 19,
10:00 am, et

Up 1.0%

Important. An indication of future economic activity. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Weekly Jobless Claims

Thursday, April 22,
8:30 am, et

465K

Important. An indication of employment. An increase in jobless claims may bring lower Connecticut mortgage rates.
Producer Price Index

Thursday, April 22,
8:30 am, et

Up 0.5%,
Core up 0.1%

Important. An indication of inflationary pressures at the producer level. Decreases may lead to Connecticut mortgage rates.
Existing Home Sales

Thursday, April 22,
10:00 am, et

5.3M

Low importance. An indication of mortgage credit demand. Significant weakness may lead to lower Connecticut mortgage rates.
Durable Goods Orders

Friday, April 23,
8:30 am, et

Unchanged Important. An indication of the demand for "big ticket" items. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
New Home Sales

Friday, April 23,
10:00 am, et

Up 1.9% Important. An indication of economic strength and credit demand. Weakness may lead to lower Connecticut mortgage rates.

Durable Goods Orders

Durable goods orders are generally believed to be a precursor of activity in the manufacturing sector because manufacturing must have an order before considering an increase in production. Conversely, a decrease in orders eventually causes production to be scaled back; otherwise the manufacturer accumulates inventories, which must be financed.

Unfortunately, durable goods orders data has many drawbacks. The first problem with the orders data is that they are extremely volatile. The volatility of the data usually is attributed to the civilian aircraft and defense components of the figure. For example, if Boeing has a big order for one of its jumbo jets, the civilian aircraft category can change by $3-4 billion. The same scenario is evident when an aircraft carrier is ordered, surges in the defense category result. The second problem with the data is that orders are continuously being revised. There are many times in the past when the advance report on durables showed an increase while a revision a week later showed a decrease. The revised data is found in the report on manufacturing orders, shipments, and inventories.

Since the data is very volatile and difficult to forecast, there is quite often a huge disparity between the actual release and the initial projections. If the durable goods report is much stronger than expected, look for Connecticut mortgage rates to push higher. If favorable, the data may help interest rates remain steady or even push lower.

For more news and information about Connecticut mortgage rates, purchasing or refinancing a home visit www.ToMortgageServices.com, or call directly at (800) 922-3210

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Ambassador
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Ed Silva
CDPE, GRI, ABR, Real Estate Agent
RE/MAX Professionals, CT 203-206-0754

Don the economy is trying to percolate but until they create permanent good jobs we'll stay where we are.

April 22, 2010 02:28 PM
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