Daily Rate Lock Advice & Mortgage Market Update

By
Mortgage and Lending NMLS 291249

DAILY MORTGAGE RATE LOCK ADVICE
October 1, 2010, 7:00 PT

LOCK ADVICE CHANGES SEVERAL TIMES DAILY CLICK FOR UPDATE

Mortgage Rate lock Advice for locks within 3 days:  LOCK
Mortgage rate points based on Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) are up 0.15 point. 

Long Term Mortgage Rate Lock or Float Advice:  LOCK
MBS prices pulled a quick switch.  On Sept. 9, MBS prices (FNMA 30 Yr, 4.0%) closed below their 20 day moving average and on Sept 21, MBS prices closed above their 20 day average; mainly on the news the Fed is concerned with under inflation.  

The 20 day moving average is a stable market direction indicator because whenever prices move above or below the average, it indicates a correction lasting at least a month... except this time.

Red FlagThis time, the initial correction lasted only a few days and then bounced back and forth over the average; up once and down twice since Sept. 21; today, again closing below the 20 day moving average.  All these criss crossings in a less then three weeks is unusual behavior and my advice is to lock on price decreases until the market reestablishes itself. (remember, mortgage points move opposite MBS prices)National

  • Average Fixed Rate Mortgage down at 4.34%
  • 10 Year Treasury 2.51% up 0.06%
  • DJI Stocks Currently $10,886.37,  Up 51.09, 0.47%
  • Asia & Europe Indexes Up 0.257%
  • Nymex Crude Oil Currently $79.26 Up  $1.40

_________________________________________________________________________________

California Rates 09-30-2010, 1:00 PT
30 Year Fixed to $417,000
Rate 4.000%  Point 0.875 APR 4.129%
Rate 4.125%  Point 0.250, APR 4.202%
Rate 4.250%  Rebate 0.500 APR 4.265%
APR Based on $350,000 Mortgage at 80% LTV
740 Credit Score - 30 Day Lock.
Click for Quotes on FHA and VA loans With Detailed Cost Estimates.
 No Application Fee or Credit Report required

________________________________________ 

MORTGAGE MARKET NEWS IN REVIEW 

Thursday, September 30,
Weekly Jobless Claims: The number of people who filed initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 16,000 to 453,000 in the latest week
The ISM-Chicago's purchasing managers index climbed to 60.4% in September from 56.7% in August,

Wednesday, September 29,
Auction Prices for 5 and 7 year treasuries were little changed today.
Our best 30 yr rate today was: Rate 4.000% Point 0.875, APR 4.129%

Tuesday, September 28,
Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index showed that home prices declined 0.1 percent in July from June.
The Conference Board said September consumer confidence fell sharply from August and was well below forecasts.
Our best 30 yr rate today was: Rate 4.000% Point 0.750, APR 4.118%

Friday, September 24,
New Orders for Durable Goods fell 1.3% in July.
Sales of new homes remained unchanged at a record low in August
Our best 30 yr rate today was: Rate 4.000%  Point 1.000, APR 4.129%

Thursday, September 23
New claims for unemployment benefits rose 12,000 to 465,000 last week,
Sales of existing homes rose 7.6% in August,
Our best 30 yr rate today was: Rate 4.000%  Point 0.875, APR 4.175%

 Wednesday, September 22
The MBA mortgage purchase applications index fell 3.3% to 177.6.
Today, our best 30 Yr., 30 day lock rate was: Rate 4.000%  Point 1.125, APR 4.171%

Tuesday, September 21,
Housing starts increased more than expected in August to their highest level in four months and permits for future home construction also rose.

Monday, September 20
No economic news is scheduled that could effect mortgage rates.

Friday September 17,
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis

Thursday, September 16,
More progress on the labor front, as initial jobless claims fell 3,000 to 450,000 and continuing claims dropped 84,000 to 4.49 million last week.  Mortgage rates rose on the news but settled back once it was digested.

Wednesday, September 15,
Industrial production rose 0.2 percent in August which was good news for the economy and not so good for mortgage rates.

Tuesday, September 14,
Monthly Retail Sales increased 0.4 percent over July

Friday, September 10,
Thursday MBS prices (FNMA 30 Yr, 4.0%) closed below their 20 day moving average and the move was confirmed today.  This almost always indicates a market turn, in this case higher rates.

Thursday, September 9,
Weekly jobless claims fell more than expected, down 27K to 451K against expectations of a slight 2K decline; last week's claims were revised up, from 472K to 478K.   Good economic news is generally bad news for mortgage rates.

Wednesday, September 8,
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® which had declined in July, improved moderately in August.
Today's best Fixed mortgage rate for a 30 day lock:
              4.000% 1.25 point, APR 4.192%

Tuesday, September 7,
3 Year Treasury Note yield came as expected with a yield of 0.79%
Tuesday's best Fixed mortgage rate for a 30 day lock: 
 4.000% 1.125 point, APR 4.182%

Friday, September 3,
MBS prices dropped sharply causing mortgage rates to jump this morning after the August employment report showed that employers cut fewer jobs than economists were expecting and added more private-sector jobs than forecast.

Thursday, September 2,
Much news this morning that effected Mortgage Rate Lock Advice
Pending home sales rise 5.2 percent in July.
The productivity of American businesses fell a revised 1.8% in the second quarter, the biggest drop in almost four years and twice as much as the government initially reported,
Weekly Jobless Claims were better than expected.
Our best Fixed mortgage rate for a 30 day lock: 4.000% 1.250 point, APR 4.193%

Thursday, September 2,
Lots of news coming this morning.  Pending Home Sales, Revised Productivity, Unit Labor Costs, Weekly Jobless Claims and Factory Orders.  Unit Labor Costs and Weekly Jobless Claims can have the largest effect on Mortgage Rates.

Wednesday, September 1,
U.S. construction spending fell more than expected in July to its lowest rate in 10 years, 

Manufacturing in the U.S. expanded at a faster pace than the August forecast, signaling the industry that led the recovery will keep it from faltering.  The good news boosted mortgage rates and stock prices.

Tuesday, August 31,
Consumer confidence rose to 53.5 in August, up from 51.0 in July 

Monday, August 30,
Personal income and Personal Spending came in close to expectations so their effect on mortgage rates will be nil.

Friday, August 27,
This morning, second quarter GDP was revised  up from the consensus forecast of 1.4% to 1.6% from the first 2.4% amount, MBS markets fell after the results came out.

Thursday, August 26
This morning, weekly Jobless Claims fell to 473K, below the consensus forecast of 485K. Once again weak economic data is helping today's mortgage rates.

Wednesday, August 25,
July Durable Orders rose 0.3%, far below the consensus forecast of 2.5% and  the weaker than expected economic data is helping MBS markets this morning. .

Tuesday, August 24,
Existing Home Sales are much lower than expected and the report is hurting stocks and helping morgage rates this morning.

Friday, August 20,
There is no economic news scheduled that will effect mortgage rates.
MBS Prices, converted to Points, closed up 0.16 point for the week.

Thursday, August 18,
Jobless claims increased again and the August Philly Fed
business index confirmed that the economic recovery has stalled.  Today's poor economic news helped Mortgage Rates.

Tuesday, August 17
Housing Starts 546K,  555K was expected
PPI 0.2%, 0.2% was expected
Core PPI 0.3%, expected 0.1%

Monday, August 16,
The Empire State index came in a little lower than expected

Friday, August 13
Lots of news today that could have effected Mortgage Rates but there were no surprises.
Core CPI, Retail Sales, Retail Sales ex-Auto  all came in close to expectations, Consumer Sentiment also came in close to expectations.

Thursday, August 12,
The Jobless Claims average was up again, higher than expected.

Wednesday August 11
The Trade Deficit was larger than expected which is bad news for the economy and good new for mortgage rates.

Tuesday, August 10,
Productivity is down almost 1% when it was expected to be up 1% without much effect on mortgage rates.

Friday, August 6,
Unemployment Rate came in at 9.5% as expected.
July Non-Farm Payrolls fall more than expected which accounts for stocks and mortgage rates being down today.

Thursday, August 5
FHA Set To Increase Annual Mortgage Insurance Premium (MIP) from 0.55% to 1.55%
Congress passed bill and Obama is expected to sign. FHA Commissioner Dave Stevens said said he will use the new authority to raise the annual FHA premium (MIP) to around 0.90% and lower UFMIP to around 1.00%, following an increase in UFMIP to 2.25% from 1.75% earlier this year.
Read Official HUD Notice
Jobless claims came in at 479k and higher than expected.  The news seems to be helping mortgage rates so far this morning.

Tuesday, August 3
Personal Income came in a little lower than expected.
Pending Home Sales Index June improved to -2.6% from -30.0%
Factory Orders improved slightly from -1.4 to -1.2

Monday, August 2
The ISM Index indicated manufacturing improved more than expected.
Construction Spending indicates improved new construction.
Good news for the stock market and not so good for mortgage rates.

Friday, July 30
Advance Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is 2.4% about as expected.
Consumer Sentiment is 37.8% a little better than the expected 37.5%
Chicago PMI is 62.3 and better than the expected 56.0.

Thursday, July 29
Jobless claims were 3,000 less than expected.
Our best 30 year Fixed rate: 4.25%, 0.125 point, 4.317% APR

Wednesday, July 28
June Durable Orders declined -1.0% from May,
Our best 30 year Fixed rate: 4.25%, 0.125 point, 4.317% APR

Tuesday, July 27
Consumer Confidence report showed it slightly lower than expected.
Tuesday's best 30 year Fixed rate: 4.25%, 0.375 point, 4.339% APR

Monday, July 26
New Home Sales report shows sales are up 24%.
Monday's best 30 year fixed rate: 4.25%, 0.375 point, 4.362% APR

Friday, July 23
No economic data is scheduled today that would affect mortgage rates.

Thursday July 22
Jobless Claims were 464k, higher than the expected 450k..
June Existing Home Sales fell 5% to 5.37M,

Wednesday, July 21
No economic data will be released today.  Fed Chief Bernanke will deliver the semi-annual testimony to Congress at 2:00 PM ET

Tuesday July 20,
Housing Starts came in at 549k, below expectations

Thursday, July 15,
Today's Producer Price Index (PPI) is -0.5%, -0.1%  was expected
Core PPI  came in as predicted
Jobless Claims came in at 429K where 450k was expected

Wednesday, July 14
Import Prices ex-oil  were down
Retail Sales are down more than expected

Tuesday, July 13
Trade Balance came in lower than expected .

Friday, July 9
No economic date is scheduled today that could affect mortgage rates.

Thursday, July 8
Jobless claims were down 18,000 and slightly lower than expected.  The good news pushed mortgage rates up a bit during the day.

Friday, July 2
The economy lost 125,000 jobs in June, which was close to expectations.  The private sector added 83,000 jobs and 225,000 census workers lost their temporary work.

Thursday, July 1
Jobless claims came in higher than expected.
Construction Spending and  Pending Home Sales were less than expected.
ISM Index was also less than anticipated. 
Typically, poor economic news is good for mortgage rates.

Wednesday, June 30
Chicago PMI came in at 59.1 as expected and indicates an expanding economy.

Tuesday, June 29,
Consumer Confidence was lower than expected.
The April Case-Shiller 20-city home price index showed a rise of 0.8% from March, the first monthly increase since September.

Monday, June 28
Personal Income came in close to expectations. 
MBS prices closed up 16/32 and many lenders improved their mortgage rates midday.

Friday, June 25
Consumer Sentiment rose to the highest level since January 2008.

Thursday, June 24
Durable Orders were -1.1% when they ware expected  to be 2.8%
Jobless Claims improved slightly.

Wednesday,  June 23
New Home Sales dropped 33% from April, far below the consensus.

The Fed made no change in the fed funds rate and Mortgage rates showed little reaction.

Tuesday, June 22
Existing Home Sales came in at 5.66M which was lower than expected.

Thursday, June 17
CPI inflation came in close to expectations with almost no effect on mortgage rates..

Wednesday, June 16
Lots of news this morning and, so far, it has not significantly impacted mortgage rates.
May PPI fell -0.3% from April due to a decline in energy prices
PPI was 5.3% higher than one year ago
Core PPI  was 1.3% higher than one year ago.
May Housing Starts fell 10% to 593K.
Building Permits declined 6% to 574K, the lowest level in a year
The Mortgage Bankers Association weekly purchase activity index rose 7%, while the refinancing activity index increased by 21%

Tuesday, June 15
The Empire State index came in close to expectations

Friday, June 11
MBS prices jumped  when Retail Sales came in lower than expected, lowering mortgage rates slightly at opening.

Thursday, June 10
Jobless claims came in at near expectations. 
MBS prices dropped 25/32 causing several lenders to increase their mortgage rates mid day.

Friday, June 4
May Employment report showed a 431K job increase, which was lower than expected

Thursday, June 3
Lots of news that had no real effect on mortgage rates:
Jobless Claims came in close to expectations.
First quarter productivity was revised lower to 2.8% from 3.6%
The Fed's  Lockhart said the Fed may have to begin hiking rates even while unemployment is considerably higher than before the recession.
Factory Orders were 1.2, close to expectations
ISM Services Index, 55.4 as predicted

Wednesday, June 2
April Pending Home Sales rose 6%, which was higher than expected.

Tuesday, June 1
Construction spending came in stronger than expected

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