This graph is a good indicator of what is to come (and when). It shows that subprime ARM resets will hit their peak in the next few months, while the Option ARMs, Prime ARM, and Alt-A ARM resets will peak in the next 36 months or so.
The sheer numbers are staggering, especially in the subprime market: $35 billion in subprime ARMs will reset in the coming months, and I believe that these are the problem loans. I'm sure that a sizeable amount of these loans are high LTV mortgages, and in a declining market, these loans will be nearly impossible to refinance, whether FHASecure is available or not. Keep in mind that HUD estimates that only 250,000 borrowers will be able to qualify for FHASecure.
I guess the good news is once we get past the next 6 months or so, the market should be in better shape. Most Option ARMs, Prime ARMs, and Alt-A ARMs have lower LTVs and higher credit scores, and for the most part, these borrowers should be in a better position to refinance to a fixed rate.