Absorption rates for the three St. Paul's

By
Real Estate Agent with Saint Paul Home Realty

November 14, 2006

Borrowed with Permission from the St. Paul Real Estate Blog, origional post 11/14/2006

NumbAbsorption Rates

The math used to calculate absorption rates is simple.  Add up the number of homes on the market, and then find how many homes were sold in the past 30 days. (Homes taken off the market because they got offers)  Take the total number of homes and divide by the number of offers made to get the absorption rate which is used to determine how long it will take for all the homes currently on the market to be absorbed by buyers, at the current rate of purchases.   Absorbed really means sold.

St. Paul, MN 

  • There are: 1471 single family homes on the market.  In the last 30 days 192 of them received offers and were taken off the market  At that rate it will take about 7.6 months to sell them all. 
  • There are: 544 condos, and townhouses on the market.  In the last 30 days 26 of them received offer and were taken off the market. At that rate it will take about 21 months to sell them all.  This number has gone down by one month since last summer, but with the new construction downtown no one knows how many units are currently on the market.

South St. Paul, MN

  • There are: 151 homes on the market including condos and townhouses.  In the last 30 days 22 of them received offers and were taken off the market.  At that rate it will take 6.8 months to sell them all. (last year at this time there were about 70 homes on the market is South St. Paul, the year before about 45)

West St. Paul, MN

  • There are: 149 homes on the market including condos and townhouses.  In the last 30 days 18 of them recieved offers and were taken off the market.  At that rate it will take 8.2  months to sell them all.

Sellers should use this information to determine how long it might take to sell their home.  Some homes sell faster and some take longer because these are averages. 

Buyers should use this information to understand that if a home has been on the market for six months it is because it takes on average at least that long to sell a house, and that we have reached the tipping point, it really is a buyers market.

TO BAD I CAN NOT SELECT MORE THAN ONE CITY OR COUNTY IN THE DROP DOWN MENU OR I WOULD SAY THIS IS FOR RAMSEY, AND DAKOTA COUNTY AND FOR ST. PAUL, SOUTH ST. PAUL AND WEST ST. PAUL 

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Rainer
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Bonnie Erickson
The Realty Matrix - Saint Paul, MN

Absorption rates.  A blooger told me it has to be for a narrower area and style of home, etc., so I've always been afraid to talk absorption rates.  I don't know that narrowing it down will change the amount of time needed to sell all the existing listings.

Couple questions:  1.  Does the absorption rate only account for homes sold?  What happens to the cancelled and expired listings that are removed from the market as well?  2.  This doesn't take into account all the new listings coming on the market, does it?  Those numbers will lengthen the absorption time.

Nov 15, 2006 03:17 PM #1
Rainer
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Teresa Boardman
Saint Paul Home Realty - Saint Paul, MN

Yes the narrower the better, which is why I don't use the Minneapolis numbers.

The houses that have an off market date in the past 30 days that are currently sold or pending.

No it is a snap shot and does not take into account new listings, which is why I like to use words like "at the current rate"  If homes are taken off the market that will also affect the number. 

Nov 15, 2006 03:36 PM #2
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Rainer
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Teresa Boardman

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