Mortgage Market Snapshot 06-16-2011

By
Real Estate Mortgage Broker with Global Home Finance Inc.

by Sigma Research

Early this morning the 10 yr note made a new low yield at 2.88% frm 2.97% at the end of yesterday on increasing concerns over Europe's debt problems headlined by Greece. The European Union's failure to contain the Greek debt crisis is sending fresh shockwaves through currencies, money markets, equities and derivatives. The cost of protecting corporate bonds soared to the highest level since January, with credit-default swaps anticipating about a 78% chance that Greece won't pay its debts. Equities declined around the world, while a measure of fear in fixed-income markets jumped the most since November. Market moves suggest heightened concern that authorities won't be able to keep Greece's debt troubles from spreading after Moody's Investors Service said it may downgrade BNP Paribas SA and two other big French banks because of their investments in the southern European nation.

At 8:30 weekly jobless claims and May housing starts and permits pushed yields up as the data was better than expected; weekly claims were down 16K to 414K. forecasts were that claims would be 421K, continuing claims also fell (21K). May housing starts were about what was expected, up 3.5% with single family starts up 3.7%; April starts were revised from -10.6% to -8.8%. Building permits were thought to be down 0.5% but reported up 8.7% the highest permits since Dec 2010; multi family was the main reason for permits higher, multi-family permits jumped 23%. The two data points took the wind out of the bond market and safe haven buying that had set a new low yield on the 10 yr and had mortgage prices up 8/32 (.25 bp) frm yesterday's close.

At 8:30 the Q1 current acc't deficit was -$119.27B lower than -$130B expected. The current account measures the United States' international trade balance in goods, services, and unilateral transfers on a quarterly basis. The levels of exports, imports and the current account indicate trends in foreign trade.

By 9:15 the 10 yr note yield climbed back to 2.96% frm 2.88% prior to the 8:30 data, mortgage prices at 9:15 unchanged after being up .25 bp at 8:15. The DJIA futures traded had the index unchanged at 9:15 after being down 70 points at 8:15. Volatility remains high as we noted yesterday.

Keeping the running story going, at 9:30 the DJIA opened down 6 points, the 10 yr at 9:30 +7/32 at 2.95% -2 bp and mortgage prices very volatile this morning up 3/32 (.09 bp). Trade between 9:30 and 10:00 wasn't significant with the 10:00 Philadelphia Fed business index due. Always significant to traders, this time it is even more so after yesterday's NY Fed manufacturing report went negative indicating contraction.

At 10:00 continued volatility with the Philly Fed business index; the index went NEGATIVE indicating contraction. The index was expected at +8 it fell to -7.7 the second report in the last 24 hours that the economy is contracting. New orders in the June report were negative at -7.6 indicating orders declined, the employment component fell to 4.1 frm 22.1 in May while prices pd fell to 26.8 frm 48.3. May Philly Fed was 3.9. The initial reaction put a small bid back into bonds and mortgages but not as much as we might have thought. The DJIA at 10:06 +26, the 10 yr +9/32 at 2.94% and mortgage prices +3/32 (.09 bp).

We will continue to suggest locking for loans closing within 7 to 15 days although we remain bullish based on technicals. That said, with volatility high and rates this low the risks have increased somewhat.

http://globalhomefinance.com

close

This entry hasn't been re-blogged:

Re-Blogged By Re-Blogged At
Spam prevention

Accessibility option: listen to a question and answer it!

To submit the form,
drag the computer to the circle on the side.

Type below the answer to what you hear. Numbers or words, lowercase:

Topic:
ActiveRain Community
Location:
Texas
Groups:
MONTGOMERY COUNTY TEXAS
Mortgage Brokers
Mortgage Brokers Unite
Mortgage Professionals
MORTGAGE PRO Week in Review
Tags:
housing
single family
mortgage
mortgage prices
fed

Comments 2 New Comment

Anonymous
Post a Comment
Spam prevention

Accessibility option: listen to a question and answer it!

To submit the form,
drag the scissors to the circle on the side.

Type below the answer to what you hear. Numbers or words, lowercase:

Rainmaker
352,404
Pat Champion
Coldwell Banker Camelot Realty

It is good to have the latest on market updates for our buyer's. Thanks for sharing the latest market updates.

June 16, 2011 12:49 PM
Rainer
41,630
Brad Cahoone
Mortgage Loan Expert - Global Home Finance Inc.
Global Home Finance Inc.

My pleasure Pat.  Have a great day and keep coming back!

 

Brad

June 16, 2011 01:17 PM
Anonymous
Post a Comment
Spam prevention

Accessibility option: listen to a question and answer it!

To submit the form,
drag the leaf to the circle on the side.

Type below the answer to what you hear. Numbers or words, lowercase:

Rainer
41,630

Brad Cahoone

Mortgage Loan Expert - Global Home Finance Inc.
Ask me a question
*
*
*
Spam prevention

Accessibility option: listen to a question and answer it!

To submit the form,
drag the pants to the circle on the side.

Type below the answer to what you hear. Numbers or words, lowercase: