The Numbers Are In!!!

By
Real Estate Agent with Keller Williams

Here are your Las Vegas numbers for this week.

SFRs, condos and townhomes on the market (only EA or ER) - 27,650

Number contingent or pending - 2206     Number vacant - 13221

Number sold in last 30 days - 1173

Number of REOs - 1896 (estimated)     Number of short sales - 3896

And what do these numbers tell us?  Well, we have a 47.8% vacancy rate, but if you factor in the C & P vacancy rate, we get a total vacancy rate of 49.6%.  Wow!  1603 of the 2206 Cs and Ps are vacant.  So, 72.6% of homes in contract that are vacant.  Now if you look at my past blogs (remember they are just snapshot numbers), we went from 13,507 vacant to 13,445, to 13,221.  Hmmmm, I've found a new trend to watch...  Anyway, our vacancy rate has stayed pretty stable, but our number of homes on the market and number vacant have decreased slightly.  In my eyes, this reinforces my view of what the market is going to do in the future.  We are going into a lull where people are going to hold off putting their homes on the market through the holidays and we may absorb some of our inventory.  Spring will come around quick and we'll see more people anxious to "get out of the market before it gets any worse".  And unfortunately, I think we'll see those people that were just hanging in there by the skin of their teeth, let go after the holidays and our foreclosures and short sales numbers will creep up again slightly.  I hate to bring negativity, but that's what I see coming.  I hope I'm wrong... 

No matter what the furure brings, there's business out there for all of us who are willing to work.

Remember my favorite quote from Jim Rohn - "Unless you labor, the miracle of the seed is unavailable to you...so labor well"

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Ambassador
1,476,543
Renée Burrows
Savvy Home Strategies Realty, LLC-REALTOR®-Estate-Probate - Las Vegas, NV
Las Vegas Real Estate Broker - www.urLVhome.com

I did my economic conditions report last night to find that we have 1000 less listed homes in the valley from the month before WOO HOO!

I have watched our listed rental rate go up so I think people may be throwing in the towel.  Very interesting times we live in huh?

Interesting enough that you mention the vacancy rate of the C&P.  I had a BPO on a short sale that was vacant APPTLA ONLY yesterday.  I definitely noted that most vacant homes that are listed are KEYANY.  The agent was double ending as his pub ID was both the list and the sell.  I think there is a lot of that going on w/ short sales. 

FYI:  Foreclosure and short sales listings have risen dramatically over the last 8 months.  With the inventory dropping the percentage is also rising along with the number of listings.  Bank owned property is starting to be absorbed and the short sale absorption rate is starting to go through the roof! 

Nov 03, 2007 10:45 AM #1
Ambassador
1,551,479
Gary Woltal
Keller Williams Realty - Flower Mound, TX
Assoc. Broker Realtor SFR Dallas Ft. Worth
Wow 27,000 homes on market, 1,000 sold in a month. It might take awhile to work off that inventory. Hope things pick up for you in Las Vegas Lowell. Is the vacancy rate due to second homes or people that had to abandon their homes? You probably know.
Nov 03, 2007 01:22 PM #2
Rainer
12,307
Lowell Caro Jr.
Keller Williams - Las Vegas, NV
REO Broker and Market Advisor

That's awesome!  I see the trend going that way.  Do you think this is an indicator of recovery in '08?  My numbers are a snapshot of the MLS at the time I'm writing my blog.  So, our numbers are  a little different, but I see the same trends you do.  It's interesting to see both sets of numbers. 

I would have to agree with you that people are throwing in the towel.  I've had a few short sale clients that went from homeowners to renters, looking to be homeowners again when they can better afford it. 

Hmmm, the APPTLA and VAC, doesn't seem to make sense, but I think you've hit the nail right on the head.  I don't like giving out my "secrets", but my team has had a few short sales where we've worked both ends of the deal.  The problem there is the banks see that and usually try to negotiate the commission down.  We have set up a system on my team where we avoid that problem.  Before we put our system in-place, we would have another agent represent one side "on paper only" and get a 90% referral back from them.  That helped keep the bank from negotiating the commission down as much.  Now, we weren't buying our own properties, we were working with an investor.  I'm sure there are a lot realtors (and of course investors) buying the short sales.

Interesting info and analysis.  I love that you are truly a student of the market.  I think the number foreclosures and short sales will continue to rise for a while.  What do you think?

Nov 03, 2007 01:27 PM #3
Rainer
12,307
Lowell Caro Jr.
Keller Williams - Las Vegas, NV
REO Broker and Market Advisor

Hey Gary.  A fellow KW agent, I love it!  I hope things pick-up for Las Vegas.  For me, it was just a shift in the market, my production has actually gone up.

Althoug there are definitely a few people that abandoned their homes, I would definitely attribute the majority of our vacancy rate to investors.  I had a client who owned 3 properties here in Las Vegas and never saw any of them.  I'm sure that's not an isolated incident.

How are things down in Texas?

Nov 03, 2007 01:35 PM #4
Rainer
26,906
Bryon Howard
Remax House of Real Estate - Calgary, AB

Wow, those numbers are staggering. You have a 23 month supply of homes, assuming no more get listed!

 In Calgary, Alberta, our days on market is currently about 50days. About 18 months ago, average days went down to about 11 days.

People think the "Sky is Falling" ... and that is how the media is reporting it.

I love it ... perfect buying time ... in Oil rich Alberta.

Nov 03, 2007 02:52 PM #5
Rainer
125,515
Dawn Lewis
New Dawn Realty - San Diego, CA
Realtor - San Diego

Lowell,

Great post. You're not bringing any negativity to AR your just bringing the data. I think that's called "not killing the messenger". The facts are ugly and are also ugly in my neck of the woods in San Diego. I think that you and I are in areas of FIFI First In First Out - the ones in LILO Last In Last Out are just starting to realize what's going on. At least if they want to.

Mike Lewis

Nov 03, 2007 03:03 PM #6
Rainer
12,307
Lowell Caro Jr.
Keller Williams - Las Vegas, NV
REO Broker and Market Advisor
Byron - Thanks for the comment.  Yeah, our numbers have been pretty high for a while now.  We've been over 20 months of inventory for a few months now.  I haven't checked the average time on the market for all of Vegas, but I do a number of BPOs and off the top of my head, I see our average easily being over 100 days (I'll have to check those numbers).  It looks like our markets are similar and maybe Las Vegas is on a little more of an extreme curve.  Regardless, it equates to the same thing here, a perfect time for buying!  Our buyers are getting great deals out here!
Nov 03, 2007 10:20 PM #7
Rainer
12,307
Lowell Caro Jr.
Keller Williams - Las Vegas, NV
REO Broker and Market Advisor

Thanks Mike.  I'm somewhat new to AR, so I don't yet have a good feel for those reading these posts.  So far it seems that everyone is receptive to the messages without personal attachment.  That's good.  And yes, I would agree with you on the FIFI comment.  As I learn and grow, I've learned to watch California carefully.  It seems that our trends are right behind yours in CA.  And the speed in which we follow is amazing!  Of course our pricing is always below yours, but that's one of the things drives our market.  I hope people in other parts of the country watch our side of the world and take advantage of the lesson.  I'll keep an eye on your blog to watch the market trends in your neck of the woods.

Hope all is well for you and yours through the fires and all.

Nov 03, 2007 10:34 PM #8
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Lowell Caro Jr.

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