Is it Really Time to Buy a Home? I'm Wondering....

By
Real Estate Team Leader with Atlanta Communities Real Estate Brokerage

Put down the talking points and agent propaganda, I'm looking for a defensible answer. A rousing discussion with my CPA, my investment guy and a buddy that's a CFP left me scratching my head...is it really time to buy a home? Does that make sense for most folks?

I'm curious, I know we're all too close to be completely objective but some very compelling observations were discussed this afternoon...I'd like to hear what the rank and file have to say. I'd also like to know if you've ever suggested to a buyer that they might be better renting.

One favor - please give me a modicum of support for your point of view - more than the NAR talking points that are drilled into us. I'm looking for that real world opinion...

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  1. Donald Reich 11/15/2011 12:33 AM
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Topic:
ActiveRain Community
Location:
Georgia
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Atlanta Real Estate Q&A
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homebuyer advice

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Rainmaker
995,711
Karen Anne Stone
Fort Worth Real Estate
New Home Hunters of Fort Worth and Tarrant County

John... here is the real scoop.  Lennar started to go downhill years ago in DFW when they bought out US Home... which was severely mismanaged.  I knew both the DFW President, and their VP of sales way back when.  I could go on, but I will not.

KB... ummm... (are you serious ???)  In DFW they are nowhere near a "big five."  Bottom five, perhaps.  Never have been considered a "player" in this market since they switched over to building the product they build in San Antonio years ago.  The DFW market just wouldn't swallow it.  Never a player.

Trendmaker... they are not in the DFW market.  Never have been.  They are a Houston builder. 

DR Horton... they are HOT... and cannot build them fast enough.  They try to stay ahead of the market demand, and Realtor demand, and always put specs on the ground... even now... for the relo market.  Hot builder.

Toll Brothers... are only a token in the DFW market.  I know they are a so-called "luxury" builder, but Fort Worth/Dallas has so many genuine luxury builders that Toll Brothers are simply not a player, either. 

If your info is from a "public record" you are playing, perhaps you need either a new copy, or a new needle.

So goes your "top five."  You obviously do not know the Fort Worth/Dallas market.

Interest rates:  I have been licensed since 1973... either as a salesperson or a broker.  The mortgage rates were never at 21%.  Never.  When the prime rate hit 21% in 1983 or so... the FHA/VA rate hit 17.5%.  I personally did close to 7 million in 1983... selling for Gemcraft Homes in DFW... in the 72K to 85K buyer.  They could not build those fast enough, either.  Hot market. 

The 21% you mentioned was the prime rate... often charged for commercial loans to prime commercial customers.  The residential mortgage rate followed the prime as far as the direction it was going in, but never on a par with it... actual rate-wise.  At least back then.

In my use of 2%... that was in the slow areas.  Other areas of this market have grown perhaps 3-5%.  A few of them even more.  But, just a few.

And puhleeze.  I am NOT a Texan.  I am being held against my will in what I call The People's Republic of Texas.  Rick Perry is a joke.  At least you have a good Democrat for mayor of your fine city.  I am from the Buckeye State.  Go Bucks ! 

And... your "don't bring a knife to a gun fight" quote was not from a western.  I believe it was from a film called "The Punisher."  using his knife, Thomas Jane killed the dude who had the gun who was chasing him.

Also... when the rates finally do start to go up... it will be a great "nudge" to get folks off the fence, and out buying.

November 16, 2011 03:09 AM
Rainer
77,858
Mike Morrison
Will & Will Real Estate Brokers, The Woodlands, Texas

John,

Truly sorry for the topic hi-jack. I agree with you, data is the key. I like to see & hear the train before it hits me. Not paying attention to the data points is akin to standing in the freeway with your back to the traffic.

Socratic Logic fails again.

November 16, 2011 10:43 AM
Rainmaker
995,711
Karen Anne Stone
Fort Worth Real Estate
New Home Hunters of Fort Worth and Tarrant County

Mike... my hope is that both you and Socrates have a wonderful day.

And John, I also hope my "back-and-forth" with Mike was not seen as a hi-jack.  If so... it was not meant to be.  Take care...

November 16, 2011 10:57 AM
Rainmaker
995,711
Karen Anne Stone
Fort Worth Real Estate
New Home Hunters of Fort Worth and Tarrant County

To Mike and your friend Socrates:  Here is a link to a story I just found on MarketWatch.com, which is connected to the Wall Street Journal.

It relates the ten areas where buyers are most likely to purchase homes.  Fort Worth is the ONLY market where home values are predicted to rise.  That rise is projected at 2.7%.

**^^ - The Cities Where People Finally Want to Buy Homes - 24/7 Wall St.

The article also states that the Fort Worth market appears to have been totally skipped over by the effects of the subprime mortgage crisis.  We did not have the same frantic market increases that California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida had... so we have not had a "bubble" to burst.

When in a debate, my friend, it really is a good idea to be speaking from a point of fact... don't you agree ?

November 16, 2011 05:30 PM
Rainer
77,858
Mike Morrison
Will & Will Real Estate Brokers, The Woodlands, Texas

OK Karen, Projcted rise 2,7%. CURRENT INFLATION=3.2%. Here comes math; 3.2 - 2.7 = <0.50>. That does not include food & fuel. I guess we just leave inflation out of the equation to make the numbers look better? Don't want to confuse you with facts. Kind of like the White house play book- Spin Manual Lesson #1; After you report data, quickly follow up with "it's better than expected".

Karen, I'm proud of you for taking the time to research something. Good work,keep it up.

November 16, 2011 07:01 PM
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Rainmaker
113,244

Hank Miller

Broker & Certified Appraiser
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Additional Information

The HMT blog is written by Hank Miller of The Hank Miller Team. He is a licensed broker and certified real estate appraiser in the state of GA. Since 1989, real estate has been his full time occupation and Hank consistently ranks at the very top of Atlanta area agents in overall production. He is known as much for his attention to detail as he is for his candor.