Lenn Herley's post is right on target regarding the explosive announcement today that the NAR sales numbers are since 2007 as much as 20%.
Good luck and success.
BAD HOUSING NUMBERS SHOULD HAVE BEEN WORSE!! SO SAYS THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS - TODAY.
"Data on sales of previously owned U.S. homes from 2007 through October this year will be revised down next week because of double counting, indicating a much weaker housing market than previously thought."
ACCORDING TO CORE LOGIC, the published reports may have been off by as much as 20%.
EXAMPLE OF NAR REPORTS:
"Pending Home Sales Jump in October
Washington, DC, November 30, 2011
Pending home sales rose strongly in October and remain above year-ago levels, according to the National Association of Realtors®."
Read the full article HERE.
THE QUESTION NOW IS, how bad was it really? How is the consumer going to have any confidence in the numbers in the future?? IMO, if the NAR had published more realistic reports over the last 5 years, many agents could have or should have prepared themselves for that reality. I know many real estate practitioners who have changed their practices and routines dramatically to survive in a seriously deteriorated market.
NEWS FLASH!!! Many experienced real estate practitioners have always taken the published statistical reports with a lot of scepticism, myself included. I compile my own data from the MLS and create my own reports. They are not fancy, but they are accurate based on actual MLS active and SOLD reports. I don't paint rosy scenarios. What's the use??? If the statistics are positive, depending on your real estate practice, fine. If they are negative, all it can do is prepare agents and brokers for the reality of what is, not what we wish it to be. I don't lie to consumers. When they ask, I give them the facts as I know them. I also point out where and how the present housing market offers opportunities, particularly for buyers, BECAUSE OF THE MARKET.
ONE THING FOR SURE, it's quite likely that agents and brokers would have been quicker to prepare to list and sell in the distressed market. The promise of a faster recovery than we were seeing didn't have agents prepare for the realities of a market that was far more distressed than believed.
MANY OF US HAVE QUESTIONED THE REPORTS PUBLISHED BY THE NAR OVER THE PAST 4-5 YEARS. I surely have. WHY??? Because I can pull my own statistical reports from MLS data and, when I see numbers that do not match those number published by the NAR, WHOSE NUMBERS ARE YOU GOING TO BELIEVE???
It pains me to read the monthly prognostications of Dr. Yun when I know in my heart that what he is saying or writing is WRONG, WRONG, WRONG!!
GARBAGE IN - GARBAGE OUT!! See the NAR Existing-Home Sales Methodology. This is an interesting read. Possible causes of erroneous reports include:
- Changes in association/board/MLS physical jurisdiction
- Changes in MLS vendors and /or staff
- Lack of response by associations/boards
- Erroneous data
Me, a simple minded real estate broker who loves statistics have known for years that the "PENDING" sales reports could not possibly be right. The gap between Active/Pending/Contract/SOLD could never be reconciled in my area.
Making things worse is the matter of SHORT SALES.
The local MLSs and the NAR have no conception of the errors in SHORT SALE data included in the PENDING reports.
I read them and scream, or post to my ActiveRain blog. HA!
NOW, WAIT FOR THE REVISED HOUSING NUMBERS. If they are, as estimated, as much as 20% off, what's that going to do for consumer confidence???
Courtesy, Lenn Harley, Broker, Homefinders.com, 800-711-7988.
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