It’s all about Inventory… or Actually the Lack Thereof

By
Real Estate Agent with McEnearney Associates, Inc.

 

Here in the close-in Northern Virginia market, (which is composed of Fairfax & Arlington Counties and Alexandria, Fairfax & Falls Church Cities), the lack of quality inventory is THE story now.  This is particularly true in the $500K-$300K and <$300K price ranges, where available inventory is down (19%) & (37%) respectively, but new contracts for January came in at 1% & (12%) respectively.  The drop in contract activity is believed to be related to the lack of desirable listings at this point, as opposed to a reduction in the desire to buy.  Open house attendance for the Arlington office of McEnearney Associates has been very since the start of the new year.

 

           Alexandria real estate market & Arlington real estate market

                                              

 

Cries of a buyers market have long faded away in all price points except the very high end.  In fact, below the $1M price point, the market is decidedly a sellers market with multiple contracts & escalation clauses becoming fairly standard again.  The drop in available units in the two lower price points mentioned above, coupled with relatively stronger sales in the month, has led to a depleted inventory to below a 2 month supply.  The bar graph below shows Months’ Supply for 1/2011 vs. 1/2012 by price range.

 

            Months Supply for the Alexandria real estate market

Overall, the Northern Virginia real estate market will be driven by employment, just like other locales across the country.  The presence of the Federal Government, Contractors to the Government, and Military installations have provided greater stability of employment and liquidity in the market with a steady stream of people locating to the region & transferring out.  The forecast is for this to continue into the foreseeable future, so the future continues to look bright for real estate here.

                         

*Statistics are courtesy of McEnearney Associates, Inc. and based on MRIS data, which is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

                     

 

 

If you would like additional information about your specific neighborhood, as all real estate is local, please contact me and I would be happy to personalize this information to your needs.

                                  

Posted by

 

AJ Heidmann ~ CRS, CDPE, ABR, e-PRO

Cell 703-474-1260 ~ Office 703-717-6324 ~ Fax 703-839-8283

AJ@AJHeidmann.com

www.AJHeidmann.com

McEnearney Associates, Inc.

4720 Lee Highway, Arlington, VA  22207

Licensed in Virginia

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Show All Comments
Rainmaker
931,170
Ronald DiLalla
Century 21 Discovery DRE 01813824 - Anaheim, CA
No. Orange Cty Real Estate

Hi AJ,  nice problem to have in our industry....thanks for the charts and graphs and for sharing with us.

Feb 23, 2012 12:04 PM #2
Rainmaker
1,085,421
Wallace S. Gibson, CPM
Gibson Management Group, Ltd. - Charlottesville, VA
LandlordWhisperer

So much of our local housing inventory has been converted to "rental" property by owners leaving the area over the last few years that homeowners being transferred NOW are finding buyers for properly priced homes.

Feb 23, 2012 12:07 PM #3
Rainmaker
305,428
AJ Heidmann
McEnearney Associates, Inc. - Alexandria, VA
YOUR Alexandria & Arlington, VA Real Estate Expert

Ronald - You're right, we could have a bunch of other things to worry about!  However, for buyers in the area, finding something in good condition & priced right can be a big challenge.  Thanks for stopping by.

Wallace - We had some of that, but I don't think nearly as much a conversion to Rentals as your area.  Thanks.

Feb 23, 2012 12:38 PM #4
Ambassador
875,662
John McCormack
Albuquerque Homes Realty * www.AlbuquerqueHomes.com - Albuquerque, NM
AlbuquerqueHomes.com, Albuquerque Homes Realty

AJ - Hearing great news like this makes my day!  Now if only the media would hear it and pass it along and get off the negativity theme.  Well presents market report my friend.

Feb 23, 2012 01:55 PM #5
Rainmaker
305,428
AJ Heidmann
McEnearney Associates, Inc. - Alexandria, VA
YOUR Alexandria & Arlington, VA Real Estate Expert

John - John, it is good news, but you wouldn't believe how many people come through an open house proclaiming that it is still a buyers market?  I have to have the number/facts at my fingertips otherwise they think that I trying to do a con job on them.

Feb 23, 2012 02:36 PM #6
Rainmaker
409,895
Michelle Francis
Tim Francis Realty LLC - Atlanta, GA
Realtor, Buckhead Atlanta Homes for Sale & Lease

AJ, 

Looks like a fabulous market in VA!  We are seeing marked strides of improvement here in Atlanta.  Very exciting!

All the best, Michelle

Feb 23, 2012 04:52 PM #7
Rainmaker
305,428
AJ Heidmann
McEnearney Associates, Inc. - Alexandria, VA
YOUR Alexandria & Arlington, VA Real Estate Expert

Michelle - I'm glad to hear that your market is moving in the right direction and hope that it keeps going.  Thanks for stopping by.

Feb 23, 2012 05:08 PM #8
Rainmaker
655,537
Laura Allen, Lake Tahoe - Truckee Real Estate for Sale www.TahoeLauraLuxuryHomes.com
Coldwell Banker, Tahoe City, CA (530) 414-1260 - Tahoe City, CA
Tahoe Real Estate Agent Helping Buyers and Sellers

AJ - Great local real estate market report.  You've given buyers and sellers a lot of good information to use.  Nicely done!

Feb 23, 2012 08:49 PM #9
Rainmaker
305,428
AJ Heidmann
McEnearney Associates, Inc. - Alexandria, VA
YOUR Alexandria & Arlington, VA Real Estate Expert

Laura - Thanks for stopping by... I hope this will get some more sellers onto the market this Spring.

Feb 24, 2012 04:23 AM #10
Ambassador
839,130
Connie Harvey
Pilkerton Realtors - Brentwood, TN
Realtor - Nashville TN Real Estate

AJ, this is certainly good news for Sellers in your area. I hearing this more and more, across the country.

Feb 24, 2012 01:02 PM #11
Rainmaker
305,428
AJ Heidmann
McEnearney Associates, Inc. - Alexandria, VA
YOUR Alexandria & Arlington, VA Real Estate Expert

Connie - Things are definitely moving from balanced to a sellers market, so barring an explosion of new inventory (which I don't see), pricing should be stable to slightly up for the year.  Thanks for the comment.

Feb 24, 2012 01:29 PM #12
Ambassador
1,745,134
Barbara-Jo Roberts Berberi & Corinna Birgit Cromartie
Charles Rutenberg Realty - Palm Harbor, FL
Palm Harbor & Dunedin FL Residential Real Estate

What did we learn in college? Inventory goes down, prices go up........it is all GOOD for the economy! Great post!

Feb 25, 2012 04:52 AM #13
Rainmaker
800,711
Al Raymondi
Ocean View Realty Group in Ormond By The Sea Florida - Ormond Beach, FL
Ormond By The Sea Florida - Home and Condo Sales a

Terrific post AJ, good to see a strong market in your area.  Best wishes for success in 2012.

Feb 25, 2012 02:25 PM #14
Rainmaker
305,428
AJ Heidmann
McEnearney Associates, Inc. - Alexandria, VA
YOUR Alexandria & Arlington, VA Real Estate Expert

Barara-Jo - The basics don't change and hopefully more sellers will take advantage of the opportunity.

 

AL - Thanks for stopping by and best wishes for you 2012.

Feb 26, 2012 11:19 AM #15
Rainmaker
1,913,540
Gita Bantwal
RE/MAX Centre Realtors - Warwick, PA
REALTOR,ABR,CRS,SRES,GRI - Bucks County & Philadel

Thank you for sharing the market stats for your area. Buyers and sellers should call you for help in buying or selling  a house.

Feb 27, 2012 09:59 AM #16
Rainmaker
305,428
AJ Heidmann
McEnearney Associates, Inc. - Alexandria, VA
YOUR Alexandria & Arlington, VA Real Estate Expert

Gita - Thanks for stopping by.

Feb 28, 2012 12:43 PM #17
Rainmaker
1,027,597
Michael Jacobs
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage - Pasadena, CA
PasadenaCA Real Estate Representation 818.516.4393

AJ -- what we need are some equity homeowners who would like to make a move -- they may be listening to the "national news" and not realize that there is a great opportunity to maximize their selling price if they are prepared to really sell -- just another case of real estate being local and neighborhood-centric.   

Mar 07, 2012 11:16 AM #18
Rainmaker
667,352
Maureen Bray Portland OR Home Stager ~ Room Solutions Staging
Room Solutions Staging, Portland OR - Portland, OR
"Staging that Sells Portland Homes"

Our Portland market is seeing less inventory now, too ... and properties that are presented well and priced right are selling quickly.  It's good news and I'm glad to hear it's happening in other areas, too!

Mar 23, 2012 10:59 PM #19
Rainmaker
305,428
AJ Heidmann
McEnearney Associates, Inc. - Alexandria, VA
YOUR Alexandria & Arlington, VA Real Estate Expert

Michael - I agree with your sentiment, many are missing the opportunity to sell because of the national situation

Maureen - Great to hear that other areas are moving along too, thanks for stopping by.

Mar 24, 2012 05:38 AM #20
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Rainmaker
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AJ Heidmann

YOUR Alexandria & Arlington, VA Real Estate Expert
Ready to find or sell your Northern Virginia home? Let's begin!
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