"Real estate is local" Gary Shilling Knows Nothing

By
Real Estate Broker with The Corcoran Group
http://actvra.in/HXY

A broken clock gets the time right twice a day...

Gary Shilling, a broken record has never been right.

This week the media had numerous articles about the "so-called" famous economist Gary Shilling not ready to call the national housing market a bottom yet. In fact, he expects prices to drop another 20 percent from here and doesn't think we will see a bottom in the market for another several years.

Is Gary a day late and a dollar short?  HA

Doeas anyone care what he thinks? Is there really a national housing market?

I can't speak for other markets but here in Manhattan we're on fire. Bidding wars, all cash buyers, foreign buyers, investor buyers, first time buyers everyone is out buying.

He's talking about a bottom? Don't bottoms come during buyer's markets? Did he miss the memo? I think we bottomed here in 2009. I can tell Gary we are in a a strong seller's, owner's landlord's market. Rents are at all time highs and vacancy rates are at all time lows. We are seeing bidding wars on rentals at the same time many renters have discovered it's cheaper to own then to rent so renters are out buying at 3% mortgage interest rates competing with all cash investors and pied-a-terre buyers.

Does any one really want to hear predictions from the boy who cried wolf?

Hey I have charts too Gary!

Manhattan market August 2012

Manhattan market August 2012

And My charts are better than yours...

because I'm a real estate broker, I'm out selling real estate everyday and my charts come from actual closed sales data and contractas from my local brokerage not from some one in an ivory tower named Gary Shilling.

close

Re-Bloggged 2 times:

Re-Blogged By Re-Blogged At
  1. Courtney Cooper 09/21/2012 11:08 AM
  2. Gabe Sanders 09/24/2012 04:18 AM
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Topic:
ActiveRain Community
Location:
New York New York County Manhattan
Groups:
Market Reports
Posts to Localism
Landlord Issues
Blatant Politics
Local Expert
Tags:
charts
data
manhattan
gary shilling
national housing market
predicitions
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Comments 10 New Comment

Rainmaker
1,683,049
Gabe Sanders
Stuart Florida Real Estate
Martin County Residential Homes, Condos and Land Sales

Mitchell, it's interesting to see the pundits pursue their own agenda and finding the statistics to back themselves up, while ignoring reality.

September 22, 2012 04:15 AM
Rainmaker
499,164
Mitchell J Hall
Lic Associate RE Broker - Manhattan, NYC
The Corcoran Group

Chris, Thanks I think all real estate is local.

Janis, Shilling is a bear. Fore 20 years he was predicting a bear market.

Peggy, Statistics are easily manipulated and not always accurate. Manhattan numbers are rarely included in National studies. Even local statistics are wrong because the NY AD market which includes 3 states and many counties.

Dale, I believe all real estate is local. There may be a national aggregate but in my opinion it doesn't mean much. I don't think averages and medians mean much either. They can determine trends but most people don't buy an average or median home.

Courtney, Thank you. Have a great weekend.

Gabe, Gary Shilling is a famous for being bearish on housing. Some places may never recover. Even local markets can be neighborhood specific.

September 22, 2012 07:21 AM
Rainmaker
219,526
John MacArthur
Licensed Maryland/DC Realtor, Metro DC Homes
Century 21 New Millennium

Mitchell,

Shilling falls into the same crap basket that holds Jim Cramer, Larry Yun, Rush Limbaugh and Jon Stewart. They are all "entertainers".  If they can stand on the edge and speak loudly enough, they will garner the attention they seek.  I always like to keep in mind that there is nothing in the wind but hot air moving. Let them blow hard. The gentle breeze that wafts through local neighborhoods varies in strength and direction. Housing is as capricious as everything else impacted by local conditions.

Dopes, they are all dopes.

September 24, 2012 04:58 AM
Rainmaker
508,256
Wayne Johnson
San Antonio REALTOR, San Antonio Homes For Sale
Coldwell Banker D'Ann Harper REALTORS®

Mitchell-If you give a competent statistician enough variables, they can usually come up with a number of charts and graphs that can support many arguments, on both sides of the issue.

September 24, 2012 12:21 PM
Rainmaker
499,164
Mitchell J Hall
Lic Associate RE Broker - Manhattan, NYC
The Corcoran Group

Hi John, Excelent! I never thought of Schiling as an entertainer but you are absolutely correct. He probably makes a nice living from all the tv shows he's on.

Wayne, Good point. So true. Any good statistician can manipilate stats to support their argument. I'm not even a statistician and I know how to make comps support a high or low appraisal depending on which side of the transaction I'm on,-)

September 24, 2012 12:51 PM
Rainmaker
499,164

Mitchell J Hall

Lic Associate RE Broker - Manhattan, NYC
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