Manhattan NYC Real Estate Market Ferris Wheel Ride

By
Real Estate Agent with The Corcoran Group

The World's Tallest Ferris Wheel, NYC

The World's tallest Ferris Wheel opening New Years Eve 2015 in New York City

rendering courtesy of nyc.gov

Real estate is local. In Manhattan it can even be neighborhood, block and building specific. Some hold value better than others. I've represented sellers that bought during the peak that sold recently and some had a loss and some had a gain.

According to Mayor Bloomberg a ride on the Ferris wheel would take about 30 minutes, start to finish. A ride in Manhattan real estate should be a long one too. There is no better asset than real estate when held for the long term. In my opinion it is best to hold real estate for a minimun 10 years.

My first Activerain blog on 7/27/2006 predicted a buyers market for the next 24 months. I was a little premature because we peaked in 2007.  We had a bump in 07 bucking the national decline in housing. Wall Street bonuses soared that year fueling the loca real estate market even though the bonuses lagged Main Street and the national economy. Then came the financial crises and when Lehman Brothers closed Fall 2008 the market crashed overnight. 

2009 was a terrible year in Manhattan real estate. My broker at the time Coldwell Banker Hunt Kennedy, the 6th largest broker in Manhattan went out of business. I moved to The Corcoran Group, New York City's largest brokerage that summer. Barbara Corcoran founded the company 30 years earlier as a rental agency so rentals are just as important as sales there. I did more rental deals the rest of that year then in my entire previous real estate career.

I believe all real estate is local and all markets go in cycles. Booms and busts, bubbles and crashes or corrections, bear and bull markets. There is always a bull market some where.

As I began blogging the summer of 2006 that was the theme of my blogs. That summer I wrote on Activerain Real estate is local. The local economy effects the market. This is evident by reading some of my fellow activerain member’s blogs. By reading Maureen Francis  I know that the market in Detroit is very dependent on the auto industry.  Manhattan is dependent on Wall Street. Wall Street bonuses fuel our market. When Wall Street has a good year it’s great for real estate in Manhattan and New York City, even if the financial media is negative and gloomy about real estate and the stock market.

 On September 6 2006, I received my first gold star and featured post "Will History Repeat Itself? It usually Does" If I were to cut and paste it today, I think it would still be appropriate. It was about the tight rental market and real estate cycles.

On September 20,2006 I got my second gold star and feature post "it-s-best-to-buy-and-sell-in-the-same-market" No matter what the market condition it still makes sense to Buy and Sell in the same market. If you Buy and Sell in a sellers market, you sold high and bought high it equals out. If you Buy and Sell in a buyers market, you might get less for your home than your neighbor who sold a year ago but you will get your new home for less than If you bought it last year. It all equals out. Over the long haul real estate is not only a great investment but a wonderful place to live and enjoy. 

Real estate is local, markets go in cycles and history repeats it self. I base this anecdotal evidence on my almost 6 decades of life experiences, my own and family real estate investments and as a real estate broker in the trenches.

 RealEstate.com 'Riding the Trillion Dollar Real Estate Recovery Coaster' infographic is about the national housing market. The analogy is a roller coaster ride. Ups and downs booms and busts. I agree but it's nothing new. It is natural. What goes up must come down.

Why ride a roller coaster? Enjoy a longer ride, take in the beautiful sights enjoy the ride your home.  Let it ride the full cycle.  Take the Ferris Wheel ride instead.

Actual NYC Data:

The Total Dollar Value of NYC Residential Sales  - Before and After the Great Recession

In the three years leading up to the financial crisis in late 2008, the total dollar value of all home sales, or total consideration, in New York City was $121 billion.  In the three years following, 2009-2011, total consideration for home sales in New York City was $80.6 billion, almost two-thirds of the pre-crisis total consideration.

The level of comeback in the three years after the financial crisis varied between boroughs.  Manhattan recaptured more than 75% of its previous home sales consideration with a total sale value of $45.3 billion.  Brooklyn reached 64% of its pre-crisis total in the three following years with $14.5 billion in home sales.  Queens reclaimed a little more than half with $14.8 billion and the Bronx only reclaimed 44% of its previous three years total with $2.4 billion in sales.

 

Total Consideration (Millions)

 

 

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Total 2006-2008

Total 2009-2011

New York City

$42,672

$42,720

$35,686

$23,523

$29,629

$27,461

$121,079

$80,613

Manhattan

$17,046

$21,693

$20,297

$12,320

$17,011

$15,944

$59,036

$45,275

Bronx

$2,477

$1,754

$1,216

$818

$838

$723

$5,447

$2,379

Brooklyn

$8,564

$8,074

$5,873

$4,026

$5,213

$5,267

$22,511

$14,506

Queens

$11,397

$8,833

$6,592

$5,146

$5,160

$4,473

$26,822

$14,800

Staten Island

$3,190

$2,367

$1,631

$1,213

$1,407

$1,055

 $7,187

 

$3,674   

 

source: REBNY research

 

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Rainmaker
390,446
Karl Hess
Keller Williams Ocean County - Toms River, NJ
on The Jersey Shore

NYC's response to the London Eye.....nice post Mitchell.

Oct 10, 2012 05:19 AM #6
Rainmaker
290,016
Mitch Muller - Charlotte NC Real Estate
Pro-Stead Realty Charlotte, NC CRS CDPE mitch@prostead.com - Charlotte, NC
Certified Residential Specialist

Enjoyed reading your post Mitchell. And just looking at Ferris Wheel gives me some mean scary butterflies!!

Oct 10, 2012 05:20 AM #7
Ambassador
1,656,308
Fernando Herboso - Broker for Maxus Realty Group
Maxus Realty Group - Broker 301-246-0001 - Gaithersburg, MD
301-246-0001 Serving Maryland, DC and Northern VA

Great subject and I;m looking forward riding it when it fully functional and I'm in town. . what a great city! 

Oct 10, 2012 05:31 AM #8
Rainmaker
895,070
Michael Setunsky
Michael's Commercial LLC - Woodbridge, VA
Your Commercial Real Estate Link to Northern VA

Mitchell, very good analogy staying in it for the long haul. Nice analysis of the New York market.

Oct 10, 2012 05:32 AM #9
Rainer
92,048
Dorette Oppong-Takyi
Luxury Living in Phoenix - Ahwatukee, AZ
Your Local Phoenix and Ahwatukee Real Estate Agent

Great piece MItchell, It really does make sense to buy and sell in the same market, because if you buy high and sell high or buy low and sell low, it evens out.

Also you are right about the local economy affecting the local real estate market. Once again great blog

Oct 10, 2012 05:46 AM #10
Rainmaker
546,348
Ginger Harper
Coldwell Banker Sea Coast Advantage - Southport, NC
Your Southport~Oak Island Agent!

I just love it.  I would love to take that ride..

Oct 10, 2012 06:01 AM #11
Rainmaker
1,346,405
Richie Alan Naggar Author PEARLS SERIES of books
People first then business! Ran Right Realty Riverside, Ca - Riverside, CA
on LIFE and LOVE plus Real Estate too!

Mitch is rich with data....a true one stop shop agent...Yes to Mitchell Hall who knows it all...thank you

Oct 10, 2012 06:23 AM #12
Rainmaker
855,975
Jeffrey DiMuria 321.223.6253 www.SpaceCoastHomesNow.com
Fontaine Property Group - Melbourne, FL
Your Space Coast Real Estate Expert!
Mitchell...what a great post. I love your history of blogging. FYI...I did not know about the Ferris wheel.
Oct 10, 2012 06:33 AM #13
Rainmaker
430,598
Adam Brett
The Adam and Eric Team - Fullerton, CA
The Adam and Eric Team, Setting the New Standard

Had know idea about this, thanks for posting Mitchell.

Oct 10, 2012 09:59 AM #14
Rainmaker
243,143
David Ames
Zephyr Real Estate, San Francisco - San Francisco, CA
San Francisco

Very well said Mitchell.  I, too, believe strongly in the "10 year" rule as well as the "buy and sell in the same market" concept.  I've done that with my own properties and it hasn't failed me yet.  :-)

Oct 10, 2012 10:56 AM #15
Rainmaker
451,225
Kevin Mackessy
Blue Olive Properties, LLC - Highlands Ranch, CO
Dedicated. Qualified. Local.

There is going to be quite the view from atop that Ferris wheel.  Should provide for a great tourist attraction.  

Oct 10, 2012 11:46 AM #16
Rainer
14,113
Danielle Garofalo
Founder at Noisecut Media - Manhattan, NY

Well said Mitchell!

Oct 10, 2012 01:46 PM #17
Rainmaker
536,403
Jill Sackler
Charles Rutenberg Realty Inc. "Said and Done!" - Merrick, NY
Long Island's South Shore Real Estate Agent

It was featured before I even had a chance to suggest. Ten years is how long it takes traditionally to double your investment. Everything you included in this post makes good sense.

Oct 10, 2012 03:17 PM #18
Rainmaker
326,598
Wandanna Melliphant
Mississauga, ON
A Name Real Estate Investors Trust and Recommend

Hi,

A 30minutes ferries wheel ride, that's going to be one long ride.

This ferries wheel should help the New York tourism. I may visit New York just to see, but I won't make any promises to take a ride.

 

Oct 10, 2012 04:59 PM #19
Rainmaker
514,261
Mitchell J Hall
The Corcoran Group - Manhattan, NY
Lic Associate RE Broker - Manhattan, NYC

Thanks for all the comments. I've been out all day. It's been so busy this Fall

Hi Laura, The Mayor just announced the Ferris Wheel last week. Is a Ferris Wheel good Feng Shui?

Hi Peggy, Manhattan and Brooklyn are the two hot boroughs. In fact Brooklyn just became the second most expensive place to live in the nation. Manhattan is the most expensive place in the nation but I happen to have "affordable" listings in Manhattan.

Debbie, It's the busiest Fall I can remember in a long time.

Lenn, Thank you! Thank you!

Don, Thanks now you have a reason to come back the ferris wheel

Karl, We may not have the world's tallest building anymore but we will have the tallest Ferris Wheel,-)

Mitch, Thanks, I once got stuck on a Ferris Wheel as a kid at Rye Playland

Fernando, Thanks, I'll see you New Years Eve 2015

Michael, Thank you. I really believe real estate is the best long-term investment

Dorette, My first broker taught me about buying and selling in the same market. Nobody can really time the market.

Ginger, We should plan an activerain meet up at the Ferris wheel

Richie, Thank you. I don't know it all but I know a lot,-) I've been around the block a few times.

Jeffrey, Thanks, My blogging has always had the same theme. I tell clients the same thing. Even during the bubble I knew prices would come down.

Adam, It's breaking news so I tied in with the roller coaster contest.

David, We think alike. I bought my apt in 89. In 1993 it was worth 40-50% less than what I paid. In 2005 it tripled in value. Buying and selling in the same market works. Some people sell and wait for the market and they miss the boat.

Kevin, The mayor’s office estimated the wheel would draw as many as 30,000 riders per day and 4.5 million visitors a year.

Danielle, Thank you!

Jill, Thank you. 10 year cycle every decade has it's ups and down.

Wandanna, 30 minutes is a long ride. The Ferris wheel will be the centerpiece of a new complex which would also include a hotel, a 350,000 square foot retail space called “Harbor Commons” that would be adjacent to the Bank Ballpark. Staten Island will no longer be called the "forgotten borough"

 

Oct 10, 2012 06:59 PM #20
Rainmaker
1,964,242
Gabe Sanders
the BlueWater Realty team specializing in Martin County Residential Homes, Condos and Land Sales - Stuart, FL
Stuart Florida Real Estate

Excellent recap of the market from NYC, Mitchell.  Fascinating how it's so different from the rest of the country.

Oct 11, 2012 05:25 AM #21
Rainmaker
409,905
Michelle Francis
Tim Francis Realty LLC - Atlanta, GA
Realtor, Buckhead Atlanta Homes for Sale & Lease

Mitchell, 

Love this post. First, I can't wait for the NYC ferris wheel.  (The London Eye is a true treasure and I am sure this will be bigger and better.)

Second, almost everything is cyclical - we have peaks and valley's in real estate all the time.  They are not always as dramatic as they have been the last 6 years, but what goes down will go up and vice versa. 

Great re-invention of yourself through the years.

All the best, Michelle

Oct 11, 2012 05:51 AM #22
Rainmaker
390,446
Karl Hess
Keller Williams Ocean County - Toms River, NJ
on The Jersey Shore

Mitchell...just wanted to respond to the expense thing. My daughter and husband just moved out of Manhattan (views of Rockefeller) to Hoboken (same building as Eli) and the prices are so much cheaper. I have other family members living in DUMBO and a nephew that just opened a bar in Brooklyn...I don't know how they do it!

Oct 11, 2012 08:26 AM #23
Rainmaker
514,261
Mitchell J Hall
The Corcoran Group - Manhattan, NY
Lic Associate RE Broker - Manhattan, NYC

Gabe, Thank you. Everything is different here than the rest of the country. LOL.

Michelle, Thank you. What goes up must come down and then up again. When people were not buying they were renting so I did rentals that year. You have to go where the business goes.

Karl, I know, Hoboken is really nice and much less than Manhattan and now Brooklyn too. I have friends that recently moved to Jersey City (77 Hudson) brand new condo with views of Manhattan for much less.  I'm one of the few Manhattan brokers that specialize in affordable housing. I sell luxury too but because of the blogs I've written and questions I answered on Trulia about affordable HDFC coops I have become the HDFC Coop maven ,-)

Oct 11, 2012 09:57 AM #24
Rainmaker
1,101,751
Michael Jacobs
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage - Pasadena, CA
PasadenaCA Real Estate Representation 818.516.4393

Hi Mitchell -- great photo!  As for the experiencing the ferris wheel experience, I'll pass - not a fan of heights.  As far as the ferris wheel known as real estate, you're spot on with the local nuances of our business.   Nicely and fairly presented.

Oct 22, 2012 08:50 AM #25
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Rainmaker
514,261

Mitchell J Hall

Lic Associate RE Broker - Manhattan, NYC
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