CALIFORNIA 2013 HOUSING FORECAST

By
Real Estate Agent with Johnson & Johnson Real Estate Group DRE #01833715

California’s housing market will continue to recover in 2013, as home sales are forecast to increase for the third consecutive year and the median price to rise for the second straight year, according to the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®’ (C.A.R.) “2013 California Housing Market Forecast,” released today.

 

 

The C.A.R. forecast sees sales gaining 1.3 percent next year to reach 530,000 units, up from the projected 2012 sales figure of 523,300 homes sold. Sales in 2012 will be up 5.1 percent from the 497,900 existing, single-family homes sold in 2011.

 

“The market has improved moderately over the past year, and we expect that to continue into 2013,” said C.A.R. President LeFrancis Arnold. “Sales would be even higher if inventory were less constrained in REO-dominated markets, particularly in the Central Valley and Inland Empire, where there is an extreme shortage of available homes. Sales will be stronger in higher-priced areas, where there are more equity properties and a somewhat greater availability of homes for sale.”

 

“Housing affordability has never been stronger – with record-low interest rates and favorable home prices, combining to create a once-in-a-generation opportunity to buy a home in California,” said Arnold.

 

C.A.R.’s forecast projected growth in the U.S. Gross Domestic Product of 2.3 percent in 2013, after a gain of 2 percent in 2012. With job growth of 1.6 percent in California, the state’s unemployment rate should decrease to 9.9 percent in 2013 from 11.7 percent in 2011 and 10.7 percent in 2012.

 

The average for 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates will edge up to 4 percent after six consecutive years of declines, but will still remain historically low.

 

The statewide median home price is forecast to increase a moderate 5.7 percent to $335,000 in 2013. Following a decrease in 2011, the California median home price will climb a projected 10.9 percent in 2012 to $317,000.

“The housing market momentum which began earlier this year will continue into 2013,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “Pent-up demand from first-time buyers will compete with investors and all-cash offers on lower-priced properties, while multiple offers and aggressive bidding will continue to be the norm in mid- to upper-price range homes.” .

 

2013 CALIFORNIA HOUSING FORECAST

 

  2008 2009 2010 2011 2012f 2013f
SFH Resales (000s) 441.8 546.9 492.3 497.9 523.3 530.0
% Change 27.3% 23.8% -10.0% 1.1% 5.1% 1.3%
Median Price ($000s) $348.5 $275.0 $305.0 $286.0 $317.0 $335.0
% Change -37.8% -21.1% 10.9% -6.2% 10.9% 5.7%
30-Yr FRM 6.0% 5.1% 4.7% 4.5% 3.8% 4.0%
1-Yr ARM 5.2% 4.7% 3.5% 3.0% 2.8% 2.8%
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Topic:
ActiveRain Community
Location:
California Placer County Roseville
Tags:
2013 housing forecast
2013 housing report
housing recovery

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Rainmaker
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Robert (Bob) Gilbert
Your Katy TX Real Estate Expert
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Anderson Properties

Hi Justin, I saw you spotlighted on Debb Janes blog and I wanted to say hello and welcome to the Rain. I hope you get as much knowledge and enjoyment out of this experience as I do.

Good blog and I really like the chart you included with several key CA housing statistics.

October 09, 2012 12:52 PM
Rainmaker
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Joan Cox
Denver Real Estate - Selling One Home at a Time
Metro Brokers - House to Home, Inc. - Denver Real Estate - 720-231-6373

Justin, welcome to ActiveRain, and you show your knowledge in your posts, and valuable information for buyers & sellers.

October 09, 2012 02:44 PM
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Mimi Foster
Realtor - Colorado Springs
Managing Broker EPIC Real Estate Group

Good evening, Justin.  Came over from Debb Janes' post to welcome you to ActiveRain.  Great posts.  Welcome aboard.

October 09, 2012 07:33 PM
Rainmaker
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Justin Johnson
Call me I'll answer.
Johnson & Johnson Real Estate Group

Thank you everyone....

October 09, 2012 08:22 PM
Rainmaker
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Dana Basiliere
Making deals "Happen"
Coldwell Banker Hickok & Boardman Realty

Hello Justin and welcome!! It looks like you are kicking it up in the foreclosure market. Good luck!

October 12, 2012 12:13 PM
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