CALIFORNIA 2013 HOUSING FORECAST

By
Real Estate Agent with Johnson & Johnson Real Estate Group DRE #01833715

California’s housing market will continue to recover in 2013, as home sales are forecast to increase for the third consecutive year and the median price to rise for the second straight year, according to the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®’ (C.A.R.) “2013 California Housing Market Forecast,” released today.

 

 

The C.A.R. forecast sees sales gaining 1.3 percent next year to reach 530,000 units, up from the projected 2012 sales figure of 523,300 homes sold. Sales in 2012 will be up 5.1 percent from the 497,900 existing, single-family homes sold in 2011.

 

“The market has improved moderately over the past year, and we expect that to continue into 2013,” said C.A.R. President LeFrancis Arnold. “Sales would be even higher if inventory were less constrained in REO-dominated markets, particularly in the Central Valley and Inland Empire, where there is an extreme shortage of available homes. Sales will be stronger in higher-priced areas, where there are more equity properties and a somewhat greater availability of homes for sale.”

 

“Housing affordability has never been stronger – with record-low interest rates and favorable home prices, combining to create a once-in-a-generation opportunity to buy a home in California,” said Arnold.

 

C.A.R.’s forecast projected growth in the U.S. Gross Domestic Product of 2.3 percent in 2013, after a gain of 2 percent in 2012. With job growth of 1.6 percent in California, the state’s unemployment rate should decrease to 9.9 percent in 2013 from 11.7 percent in 2011 and 10.7 percent in 2012.

 

The average for 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates will edge up to 4 percent after six consecutive years of declines, but will still remain historically low.

 

The statewide median home price is forecast to increase a moderate 5.7 percent to $335,000 in 2013. Following a decrease in 2011, the California median home price will climb a projected 10.9 percent in 2012 to $317,000.

“The housing market momentum which began earlier this year will continue into 2013,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “Pent-up demand from first-time buyers will compete with investors and all-cash offers on lower-priced properties, while multiple offers and aggressive bidding will continue to be the norm in mid- to upper-price range homes.” .

 

2013 CALIFORNIA HOUSING FORECAST

 

  2008 2009 2010 2011 2012f 2013f
SFH Resales (000s) 441.8 546.9 492.3 497.9 523.3 530.0
% Change 27.3% 23.8% -10.0% 1.1% 5.1% 1.3%
Median Price ($000s) $348.5 $275.0 $305.0 $286.0 $317.0 $335.0
% Change -37.8% -21.1% 10.9% -6.2% 10.9% 5.7%
30-Yr FRM 6.0% 5.1% 4.7% 4.5% 3.8% 4.0%
1-Yr ARM 5.2% 4.7% 3.5% 3.0% 2.8% 2.8%
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Rainmaker
687,141
Patrick White
Home Driven Realty, Inc - Baldwin, NY
Put our 28 years experience and technolgy to work

Good Morning Justin

Thanks for the market update. Good seeing the market recovery. Have a great week

 

October 08, 2012 12:14 AM #1
Ambassador
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Debb Janes
The Carl Group, LLC - Camas, WA
REALTOR®, EcoBroker Camas, Washington

Welcome to the Rain Justin. You are offering some great information for buyers/sellers in your market. ( FYI, you are the featured member in Newbie Tuesday today)

October 09, 2012 08:05 AM #2
Rainer
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Justin Johnson
Johnson & Johnson Real Estate Group - Roseville, CA
I will always answer your call.

Thank You! Active Rain has been awesome members are so supportive. Have a great day...

October 09, 2012 08:17 AM #3
Rainmaker
89,528
Heidi Kelley
Keller Williams Realty Newport, East Bay Rhode Island - East Providence, RI
Selling One Yard at a Time

Hi Justin,

Just came over from Debb Janes Newbie Tuesday blog to say "Hi" and "Welcome to AR".  Have a great day!

October 09, 2012 08:20 AM #4
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John McCormack
Albuquerque Homes Realty * www.AlbuquerqueHomes.com - Albuquerque, NM
AlbuquerqueHomes.com

Good morning Justin -

I found you via Debb Janes Newbie Tuesday post.  Welcome to the Rain my friend.  If I can be of any assistance to you in any way both in and out of the Rain.  It's one of the best features of the Rain.... We help each other out and have each others backs.  Feel free to give me a shout or shoot me an email my friend.

October 09, 2012 08:23 AM #5
Rainmaker
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Adrian Willanger
206 909-7536 TheHomeFunnel.com - Seattle, WA
Profit from my two decades of experience

Hey Justin-welcome to AR, I also read Debb's blog introduction. On another note hopefully the lower end home sales will turn into to move up buyers?

 

Best

October 09, 2012 08:24 AM #6
Rainmaker
1,425,924
Roger D. Mucci
Shaken...with a Twist 216.633.2092 - Euclid, OH
Lets shake things up at your home today!

Newbie Tuesday - 10/9/2012 Welcome Justin Johnson......this post by Debb Janes is what got me here Justin.  Welcome to ActiveRain.  It is a wonderful network of people who are helpful in so many ways.  Don't hesitate to ask questions, make comments and offer opinions and advice, that's how it works around here.  You'll make many friends and form some wonderful relationships, especially with an endorsement from this fantastic lady.  Happy Blogging!

October 09, 2012 09:11 AM #7
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Jerry Newman
Green Home Realty, 210-789-4216,www.Selling-SanAntonioHomes.com - San Antonio, TX
Texas REALTOR, San Antonio Military Relocation

Welcome to Active Rain, Justin. Just saw Debb Janes post Introducing you to our AR Community. Great to hear that the housing market in California is heading a good direction.

October 09, 2012 09:24 AM #8
Rainer
405,885
Randy Ostrander
Lake and Lodge Realty LLC - Big Rapids, MI
Real Estate Broker, Serving Big Rapids and West Central MI

Good afternoon Justin and welcome to the Rain. Stopping by from Debb Jane's blog. Hope you enjoy our online commun ity.

October 09, 2012 10:24 AM #9
Rainmaker
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Sharon Lee
Sharon Lee's Virtual Assistance - Hurt, VA

Justin-Debb Janes highlights a newbie each week and so I popped over to welcome you to Active Rain. It is a wonderful place to learn, grow your business and make lots of friends.

October 09, 2012 12:16 PM #10
Rainmaker
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Robert (Bob) Gilbert
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Anderson Properties - Katy, TX
Your Katy TX Real Estate Expert

Hi Justin, I saw you spotlighted on Debb Janes blog and I wanted to say hello and welcome to the Rain. I hope you get as much knowledge and enjoyment out of this experience as I do.

Good blog and I really like the chart you included with several key CA housing statistics.

October 09, 2012 12:52 PM #11
Rainmaker
1,411,075
Joan Cox
Metro Brokers - House to Home, Inc. - Denver Real Estate - 720-231-6373 - Denver, CO
Denver Real Estate - Selling One Home at a Time

Justin, welcome to ActiveRain, and you show your knowledge in your posts, and valuable information for buyers & sellers.

October 09, 2012 02:44 PM #12
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Mimi Foster
EPIC Real Estate Group - Colorado Springs, CO
Realtor - Colorado Springs

Good evening, Justin.  Came over from Debb Janes' post to welcome you to ActiveRain.  Great posts.  Welcome aboard.

October 09, 2012 07:33 PM #13
Rainer
21,353
Justin Johnson
Johnson & Johnson Real Estate Group - Roseville, CA
I will always answer your call.

Thank you everyone....

October 09, 2012 08:22 PM #14
Rainmaker
149,312
Dana Basiliere
Coldwell Banker Hickok & Boardman Realty - Burlington, VT
Making deals "Happen"

Hello Justin and welcome!! It looks like you are kicking it up in the foreclosure market. Good luck!

October 12, 2012 12:13 PM #15
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Rainer
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Justin Johnson

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