Since most economists can’t seem to ever agree on the future of much of anything, I suggest a different approach. Historians have a much better factual database to select from so if you look backwards, it can give you an idea of what might be coming.
If you are looking for an “average” home, you should almost always have a few choices out there. However, if you are looking for something unique, how do you predict what might be worth waiting for?
I suggest going back a full year in the local MLS and search for every home that met your dream home criteria. That way, you have some indication of waht to expect. If you see only 2 or 3 homes that sold last year, or if there 100 options similar that closed last year, that should indicate the sense of urgency when one does become available.
For example, if you are looking today for a 7 bedroom home in the Boise area that is priced below $500,000, there is only one active listing and it has on offer that is contingent and waiting to close. What most people do is take the wrong approach of just waiting to find out when a home meeting their criteria is listed or getting frustrated looking in magazines, newspapers and online for an elusive home like this.
I suggest being pro-active instead of reactive when you are looking for a unique property. If you were my client, I would pull up homes listed in the last few years that were offered for sale that didn’t sell and I would approach that seller to see if they were still interested in selling. I would do the math for my clients and figure out if building a custom home meeting their criteria was an option. Building a home is also a great way of predicting the timing of your dream home since you can tell me when you want to move in and I can do the math backwards to figure out when we need start construction in order to have it completed when you are ready. I would also set them up on an automated MLS search that would check the Multiple Listing Service for any new listings that met my clients criteria.
By driving by the homes that sold you get a feel for what similar homes to your criteria sold for. That way, when the right one does become available, you are already a little more educated and a little less stressed when it is time to decide if you want to make an offer or not.
In my nearly 25 years as a Realtor in Boise, I have learned that setting the right expectations up front with my clients is what keeps them coming back next time and sending me referrals to help their friends and family buy their homes as well. If you like this approach, feel free to call me and interview me to see if I am the right choice for you!