Groundhog Day prediction 2014 - Long winter??

By
Home Builder with Floor Coverings International Westchester NY & Stamford CT WC19920-H07 HIC619252

groundhogs day 2014 predictionWhat is Punxsutawney Phil's prediction for 2014?  Apparently, it's long winter.  But, is his prediction bad news or good news?

 

You can read more about Punxatawney Phil on the official Groundhog Day website.  This has all sorts of info on the history of Groundhog's day as well as a schedule of events.

 

Of course, what's missing here is the historic predictions vs. historic accuracy.  The site claims that Phil is 100% accurate.  Hmmm.  Interesting. 

 

Well according to Stormfax.com, the world's most famous Groundhog is only 39% accurate!  Wow, that's worse than what a coin toss would predict.

 

Historically, Phil has predicted an early spring less than 15% of the time.  So, it's more likely for him to see his shadow and predict a long winter.  But, maybe I should hope that he predicts a long winter...since he is only 39% accurate.  Maybe my hopes of an early spring will come true.

 

I also wonder if the other groundhog predictors across the country agree w/ Phil's prediction.  I mean surely the weather conditions across the country will differ and hence the ability to see a shadow can vary.

 

BTW, the Farmer's Almanac accuracy is about the same.  It kind of makes you wonder why we place so much emphasis on this.  Predicting long term weather is kind of futile. 

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Debbie Gartner - Westchester Hardwood Flooring

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Debbie Gartner, "The Flooring Girl" and owner of Floor Coverings International Westchester NY

 

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Show All Comments
Rainmaker
1,605,534
Debbie Gartner
Floor Coverings International Westchester NY & Stamford CT - White Plains, NY
The Flooring Girl - Westchester hardwood flooring

Donald - Yes, that sounds like a good plan.

Feb 02, 2014 04:42 AM #2
Rainmaker
1,048,150
Sheila Anderson
Referral Group Incorporated - East Brunswick, NJ
The Real Estate Whisperer Who Listens 732-715-1133

Good morning Debbie. It seems to me that this year it doesn't matter what Phil says, we kind of know we are in for it given the last couple of months. Stay warm and have a good day.

Feb 02, 2014 05:01 AM #3
Rainmaker
1,631,104
Dorie Dillard
Coldwell Banker United Realtors - Austin, TX
Realtor-Canyon Creek- NW, Austin TX Homes For Sale

Good morning Debbie,

Glad to hear this years prediction..thanks for the update..not really surprising! I'm with Donald...bet Phil will be heading to warmer weather for a vacation! Have a great Sunday!

Feb 02, 2014 05:07 AM #4
Rainmaker
1,605,534
Debbie Gartner
Floor Coverings International Westchester NY & Stamford CT - White Plains, NY
The Flooring Girl - Westchester hardwood flooring

Sheila  - I think the worst is behind us.  And, as each day gets long and on average warmer, I'm hoping it's not as bad.

Dorie - Yes, he can use a vacation.  We all can.

Feb 02, 2014 05:12 AM #5
Rainmaker
1,371,966
Anita Clark
ColdwellBanker SSK Realtors ~ 478.960.8055 - Warner Robins, GA
Realtor - Homes for Sale in Warner Robins GA

Debbie: It has been unseasonably cold here...if Phil gets it right he may just end up on a dinner table! ;-)

Feb 02, 2014 05:50 AM #6
Rainmaker
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Jeff Fritzson: Frisco Real Estate Pro
Jeff Fritzson Real Estate, Ebby Halliday Realtors - Frisco, TX
Your Success is My Focus!

Hi Debbie - down here it certainly does notlook like the worst is behind us as we head into another week there the temps will be below freezing. That just ain't right for Dallas.

Feb 02, 2014 05:51 AM #7
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Amanda and Jared Christiansen, YOUR Fort Wayne Realtors
Century 21 Bradley (260)704-0843 - Fort Wayne, IN
Century 21 Bradley.

Phil is still much better on his predictions than the local weather people here in Fort Wayne!  This has been one of the worst winters that I can remember.  

Feb 02, 2014 06:24 AM #8
Rainmaker
892,763
Michael Setunsky
Michael's Commercial LLC - Woodbridge, VA
Your Commercial Real Estate Link to Northern VA

Debbie, we've had enough cold weather here in Northern Virginia. February can be very unpredictable.

Feb 02, 2014 06:27 AM #9
Rainmaker
1,605,534
Debbie Gartner
Floor Coverings International Westchester NY & Stamford CT - White Plains, NY
The Flooring Girl - Westchester hardwood flooring

Anita - LOL.

Jeff - Oh so sorry to hear that.  That sounds awful.

Feb 02, 2014 06:32 AM #10
Rainmaker
271,389
Eric Boucher
ReadySetLoan Condo Team LLC - South Windsor, CT
The FHA/VA Condo Project Approval Guy

Thank you for doing the research on this.  I was curious as to his accuracy and it comes as no surprise that his official site boasts 100% accuracy.  I like Bill Murray's line in Groundhog Day when he's asked if it will be an early spring, he replies "I'm predicting March 21st.

Feb 02, 2014 06:38 AM #11
Rainmaker
308,163
Grant Schneider
Performance Development Strategies - Armonk, NY
Your Coach Helping You Create Successful Outcomes

Debbie - I hope he does predict a long winter.  With those accuracy statistics it is sure to be an early spring.  Oh yes, and Farmers Almanac is nice to read but not accurate.

Feb 02, 2014 06:50 AM #12
Rainmaker
188,855
Suzanne Otto
Six Twenty Designs - Lansdale, PA
Your Montgomery County PA home stager

He may be cute, but Punxatawney Phil is not reliable. I think it's just the tradition that people look forward to. It doesn't matter if we want a longer winter or an early spring. Mother nature is going to give us what she gives us

Feb 02, 2014 06:51 AM #13
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Robert (Vegas Bob) Swetz
REALTY ONE GROUP - LAS VEGAS, NEVADA 702.443.7156 - Las Vegas, NV
Commercial & Residential Real Estate Agent

Hello Debbie and let's try and forget about that silly "Groundhog" VB's AR friends on the east coast are freezing and tired of this long cold winter ;o/

VB

Feb 02, 2014 08:45 AM #14
Rainmaker
1,605,534
Debbie Gartner
Floor Coverings International Westchester NY & Stamford CT - White Plains, NY
The Flooring Girl - Westchester hardwood flooring

VB - Yes, we are ready for spring!

Suzanne - Yes, I would agree. He is wrong more often than he is right.

Eric - Yes, I love that line, too!

Michael - yes, we all have.  Let's hope Feb is better.

Jamanda - well, let's hope he's wrong again.

Feb 02, 2014 09:58 AM #15
Rainmaker
425,166
Joanna Cohlan
Fresh Eyes For Your Home - Chappaqua, NY
Designing, Decorating & Staging Westchester Homes

I have a funny feeling that this Groundhog is an imposter and that Spring is coming in less than 6 weeks-especially from today's balmy weather in NYC!

Feb 02, 2014 03:25 PM #16
Rainmaker
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Debbie Gartner
Floor Coverings International Westchester NY & Stamford CT - White Plains, NY
The Flooring Girl - Westchester hardwood flooring

I hope you're right, Joanna.

Feb 02, 2014 04:09 PM #17
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George Souto
George Souto NMLS #65149 FHA, CHFA, VA Mortgages Connecticut - Middletown, CT
Your Connecticut Mortgage Expert

Debbie as bad as Punxsutawney Phil and the Farmers Almanac is on predicting the weather, they have a far better percentage that those experts that keep on predicting what the interest rates are going to do.

Feb 02, 2014 05:11 PM #18
Rainer
154,551
Jane Chaulklin-Schott
TEAMCONNECT REALTY - (407) 394-9766 - Orlando, FL
TeamConnect Luxury Homes - Orlando, Florida, 32836

Gee whiz, I just wanted to hear good news on the groundhog and his prediction. I did not care if they lied to us - I just wanted to hear: SPRING IS COMING SOONER THAN EXPECTED. 

Feb 02, 2014 05:56 PM #19
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Debbie Reynolds
Prudential PenFed Realty, "The Real Debbie Reynolds" Your Clarksville Real Estate Professional, 931-920-6730 - Clarksville, TN
Your Dedicated Clarksville TN Real Estate Agent

Well I will be counting the days until spring. And he better not be worng and it be longer. Have a good week.

Feb 02, 2014 08:10 PM #20
Rainmaker
1,605,534
Debbie Gartner
Floor Coverings International Westchester NY & Stamford CT - White Plains, NY
The Flooring Girl - Westchester hardwood flooring

George - LOL, that may be true.

Jane - Oh, I so want spring.

Debbie - Yes, I'm counting them down, too.

Feb 24, 2014 06:05 PM #21
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