Economic Conditions for the Las Vegas Valley October 2010 (includes Henderson & North Las Vegas)
My analysis: Distressed listings (foreclosures and short sales) are 70% of total listings up 1% from last month. This figure is slowly going up after many months of decline HOWEVER REO is emerging as a new life form (investor trustee sale purchase flips.) Credit markets must be watched as underwriting guidelines continue to tighten. Condos are barely financeable. Resale sold units and pendings remain impressive from the tax credit highs. Inventory IS increasing as pent up demand from first time buyers was exhausted from the tax credit offering that expired June 30, 2010. The rental market is softening due to all the investor/first time buyer combination of activity. This adds more supply and creates less demand.
New Residents/Employment Conditions:
My analysis: The tourism, gaming and convention numbers need to improve before these numbers improve. New Resident Count will continue to plummet if no new jobs are created. Economists are hoping that City Center brings tens of thousands of new jobs. The Las Vegas Valley has lost -133,400 jobs since April 2008. I am not optimistic that City Center can pull us out of this slump. (see Tourism/Gaming conditions below!) City Center is expected to draw in anywhere from 10,000-15,000 new jobs. Unfortunately around 8500 construction workers from the project will be unemployed so that really boils down to only 2500-7500 new jobs. Unemployment rate is painful yet again. While these numbers are looking VERY bad, I am seeing some changes in the Tourism/Gaming Sector which will help this sector in the long run if it is sustainable!!
My analysis: Convention Attendance had a nice year over year spike in August then a big drop in September. Obviously a major convention or two moved to the month of August. This sector (tourism) needs to see some serious price corrections before we see a comeback. Corporate credit is not coming back any time soon. It will be hard to get convention attendance back up without corporate credit. Glad to see regular tourists are making their way here with the imbalance of the other numbers to replace the convention attendee numbers. Gaming numbers are back in the negative but thankfully not in the double digits like they have been in the recent past.
Sources: Salestraq, Home Builder's Research, Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors, Nevada State Gaming Control Board, Nevada Department of Motor Vehicles, McCarran International Airport, Las Vegas Convention & Visitor's Authority, Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. My analysis is my humble opinion